Alistair Murphy, Agfarm Account Manager CNSW
Markets have continued to surge upwards this week, following another week of stronger international markets and continued dry weather in the north. Coarse grain prices have firmed around $15/MT over the last seven days across the board.
We have seen noticeably more selling enquiry this week in Central NSW with the recent kick in prices enticing some growers to let more tonnage go. It has mainly been old season (2016/17) ASW and APW and not too much in the way of protein wheats.
Sowing progress has been ticking along this week, although not at a frantic pace. The majority of bigger scale farms have had to bite the bullet and start dry sowing into minimal moisture to allow them to plant all arable country should we receive an autumn break in the next few weeks. We still need that magical two or three inches to get us back on track.
Every day that passes without rain is a day closer to the cut off for the new crop canola sowing window, and things are starting to get a little too close for comfort for oil seed seeding. Without rain in the next week we would expect the majority of canola sowing intentions in Central West NSW to be switched out to barley and wheat.
Interestingly enough, we haven’t really seen our domestic consumers price old season canola too aggressively at present as there is still some time for the East Coast crop to get it in the ground. But if it turns out the new crop canola window becomes compromised, we would expect old crop pricing to increase as a response.
There are some good areas in the north where sowing progress is much more advance. Around the Goondiwindi border region and north east into the Inner Downs there has been additional storms allowing growers in these areas to get stuck in, and some crops in this area actually look quite good in comparison to those further south and west.
There is some decent rain predicted for Northern NSW and Queensland on the medium-term outlook for the middle of May, and a few of the various platforms mirror this expectation. If it does eventuate on a widespread basis, it could be the get out of jail card we’ve all been waiting for. Fingers crossed we get of some of the good stuff as predicted!
Prices as at 4th May 2018