Alistair Murphy, Agfarm Account Manager CNSW
This week has seen values rise again with coarse grains firming anywhere between $10-15/MT, even after international values took a breather post the USDA report being released at the end of last week. The USDA report kept the Aussie crop forecast at 22 million tonnes in their latest update, which appears to be optimistic. But they do tend to be conservative and will most likely apply further cuts into next month’s report.
Big volume feed homes are really struggling to get any liquidity from the grower as local farm to farm values are slurping these tonnes up at anywhere between $40-60/MT over conventional markets. But luckily for the big end consumers, the trade is really playing their part in supplying northern homes with liquidity, with long range train and boat execution working its way into the northern markets.
Looking forward, it’s becoming evident that in of lieu our East Coast new crop deficiencies, markets will need to adjust and maintain a level that encourages grain to be shipped from WA and SA into Brisbane. At present values we are priced effectively to do this, but with international markets operating in a more bullish fashion, northern markets will need to be quick to respond to any upside in overseas markets in order to keep the grain from heading offshore.
A significant spring break will encourage a sizable summer crop to be planted, but 5-6 inches of rain is really needed to set it up. Here’s hoping!
Prices as at 9th August