Matthew Noonan, Agfarm Account SNSW
The past week has seen very low temperatures across much of the region slowing crop growth for now. We have had some further patchy falls over the past week (0-10mm’s), which continues to tease as crops slowly come out of the ground from their late start. We are hearing stories of canola sown back in April only just coming out of the ground now. The Murray to Murrumbidgee it is looking very good to good (patchy though), Murrumbidgee to Lachlan is good to average (with some pockets of below average condition) and then north of Lachlan is best explained with words we cannot repeat.
Old crop wheat markets continue to remain level. The north is still dragging tonnes towards Liverpool Plains at around $380-385/MT (with some spot premiums) while Griffith and Young market zones have remained steady with some buyers back $3-5 from last week’s values. Griffith values are at $325-330/MT and is at Young $335-340/MT with spot loads being around $1-3/MT higher. It has been interesting to see some further sheep producers taking wheat over barley in some scenarios, as this market can still be $10-20/MT higher than the quoted numbers above. Markets will likely meet a bit of a standoff for the next four to six weeks until we get into spring. New Crop levels are holding at around $350/MT Port Kembla track with a high of around $358-360/MT earlier this week but next to no forward sales being made for now.
Barley demand has slowed right up with lamb prices reaching Australian records of $288/head in Wagga Wagga. This price has seen lambs near finishing shifted off to market lessening the demand for barley. This could change rapidly come spring and new lambs hit the ground. This has been the number one unknown disappearance factor for feed grains for the last three to four months that a lot of forecasters can’t factor in well enough. Still, we are able to get anywhere from $310-360/MT exfarm from south to north. This provides the most value when looking at it verse wheat. New crop numbers are looking healthy at $310-313/MT Port Kembla track even with the increase in planted acres this season. Options for January-March 2019 movement would be around for $250-280/MT exfarm dependent on location.
There is still a bit of old crop canola out there unsold in the system with values sitting at around $555-560/MT Port Kembla. This is a bit of an increase week on week, but depth in the market is not overly spectacular. The same goes for new crop with values sitting reasonably steady at around $565-570/MT Port Kembla track and up around $553/MT in NSW/Melbourne track sites. For now, the Victorian crop will need to be the East Coast saviour with most forecasters picking a 450-500KMT NSW canola crop, and a good chunk of that would be in Southern NSW. So with over 500KMT of crushing capacity, it is likely Victorian and even South Australian tonnes will make their way over to NSW.
Pictured: Wheat in the hills between Cowra and Bathurst.
Prices as at 12th July 2018