SNSW Market Update 27/07/2018

Nathan Michael, Agfarm Account Manager SNSW

Another week has gone by and there hasn’t been significant rain in any parts of NSW, and so no improvement in crop conditions. Even though there is no doubt that there are areas in serious trouble and at risk of a complete crop failure, we still need to keep a balanced view when it comes to overall production. There are plenty of areas in the state that still have the potential to produce an average crop if we get good rainfall. Even under a worst case scenario for NSW, there are plans from buyers and consumers to secure tonnage from VIC, SA and now even WA to fill the NSW production gaps. So, given the massive new crop numbers that are currently available ($390 + for APW PKE), the market will sort itself out and the tonnes will flow from further away if need be.

We are starting to see bids of $400 for new crop APW multi-grades in Port Kembla, however it is extremely unlikely that we will see any grain trade at these values. Old crop wheat is still in demand and has edged up around $5 to $330 – $350 XF across the region. Protein is still maintaining a $15-$30 premium to these values and continues to be sought after by flour millers and container packers.

Liquidity in old crop barley markets is lacking, with a lot of delivered demand having switched to wheat. Pricing wise, we are still seeing F1 bids at $320-330/mt Ex VIC Border up to around $350-370/mt Ex Farm in the north of PKE zone. Along with oats, we are still seeing some barley demand from northern and eastern sheep producers who are looking to maintain breeding stock or fatten lambs for market. New crop markets jumped last week with delivered consumer pricing heading to around $310-320/mt del Riverina. Track markets are now hovering around $340-350 in Northern Melb Zone and $360-365 PKE Track.
Old crop Canola markets have been active this week, with feed consumers chasing some supply coverage & crushers looking to secure some old crop to tide them over until new crop deliveries begin. However, these increases have been limited, so this again raises the question of whether or not the cost of carry will be worth the hold. New Crop markets have been a different story, with pricing now around $585-586 PKE Track, but unsurprisingly no sales are being made at this stage.

 

Prices as at 26th July

 

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