CNSW Market Update – 16/08/2019

Anthony Hall, Regional Manager NSW & QLD

1.5 minute read

We saw a little bit of rain last weekend in the vicinity of 2-5mm. However, it was very patchy throughout central NSW and northern NSW with a lot of areas not receiving anything. Moving into QLD, unfortunately there was nothing. There is some concern there may have been some frosting in crops this week with three mornings in a row below zero. The forecast for the next seven days is dry, and temperatures are on the rise again with 25 degrees forecast over the weekend. The warm weather looks short lived though as another cold change is coming through on Monday.

I drove from Dubbo to Gunnedah and Tamworth this week. Crops around Dunedoo and Coolah are hanging in there but in desperate need of rain to minimise yield loss. North of Coolah through to Mullaley looks poor with minimal crops planted. However, the closer you get to Gunnedah conditions pick up. The early sown crops are looking very good, the later ones are struggling a little as it looks like they haven’t been able to tap into any deeper moisture. The crops from Gunnedah through to Tamworth still look really good. On the southern side of Tamworth, the crop conditions drop off as soon as you get to Werris Creek and head west.

Prices as at 15th August

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 
 
 
 
 

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CNSW Market Update – 09/08/2019

Anthony Hall, Regional Manager NSW & QLD

1.5 minute read

It’s hard not to sound like a broken record with the current weather pattern continuing as it has been and not favouring this year’s winter crop production. Unfortunately, the only thing different to last week’s report is crops have deteriorated more. Early crops that have tapped into some deeper moisture are holding on and still looking ok, but desperately need rain to maintain yield potential. Anything trying to survive with roots in the top soil only has either started to turn blue or pushed out a head at 3 inches in height. The next concern is the frost predicted in the next five days. I’ve seen plenty of flowering crops in QLD this week which is not going to be ideal. With the forecast for a dry spring and a lot of crops in need of decent spring falls to make grain many are leaning towards making the most of what they have standing and cutting into hay.

Speaking with agronomists and sorghum seed suppliers over the last week and the general consensus is forage seed is already in tight supply and with a sniff of a good forecast, grain seed will be also. Growers are being advised to commit early if they want to secure their preferred sorghum variety.

Pictured: Crops 10KM south of Goondiwindii

 

 

Prices as at 9th August

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

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CNSW Market Update – 02/08/2019

Anthony Hall, Regional Manager NSW & QLD

2 minute read

Another week without any rain for NSW, and we are breaking records for all the wrong reasons. There were a number of towns that set all-time records in July for the lowest rainfall received. Moving into QLD, there were some isolated falls in central QLD which will be perfect timing for most of their crops as they start flowering. The further south you went the lighter the falls were.

Talking to CRT stores and agronomist this week to get feel for what growers in QLD and NNSW are thinking about summer cropping opportunity. It would come as no surprise we have record areas of fallow country due to no significant winter break. If we even get a hint of a decent rainfall event in the coming months everyone will be ready to start sowing something. We desperately need ground cover, stock feed and a chance to generate some income from a grain crop. The big limiting factor we have this year is all this fallow country is sitting there with minimal moisture content and it is risky business trying to grow summer crops in times like this. Fingers crossed for a wet one.

This week I was in QLD visiting sugar cane growers and broadacre farmers in Ayr, Ingham and Townsville. Outside of the flood affected areas from the December falls things are looking good. They have started cutting cane and in general, yields are good but sugar content in some crops is a little lower than normal. There is a growing trend among some farmers to diversify away from being 100% cane farmers especially in areas where there is irrigation. Low sugar prices would be one of the main drivers for this. The crops of choice are corn, soy beans, mung beans and sorghum. The area has great growing conditions and as long as they can avoid a wet harvest, they have the potential to pull off some big yields. As these crops aren’t common for the area, the limiting factors are poor logistics, a lack of consumers and minimal onfarm storage.

 


Pictured: Sugar cane and corn crop in Ayr QLD.

 

Prices as at 1st August

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

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CNSW Market Update – 26/07/2019

Anthony Hall, Regional Manager NSW & QLD

2 minute read

The current weather position has held its status quo of not much rainfall for northern NSW and into QLD. Unfortunately, the forecast doesn’t lend itself to any improvement in moisture levels. This will continue to put pressure on crops that have been planted and are out of the ground. Some of these are hitting walls and starting to deteriorate through central NSW, northern NSW and southern QLD. There are a few exceptions around where plants have been able to push below and tap into lower moisture levels. Driving into the south from Dubbo through to the south coast this week and the majority of crops from Manildra through to Boorowa are looking quite good. However, as you head over the mountains through to the south coast it becomes a lot more hit and miss.

The hope at present is we see good spring/summer rainfall in the north. If this eventuates, we will see wall to wall sorghum, corn and dryland cotton planted as there is plenty of fallowed paddocks ready to go. The only inhibiting factor here could be the supply of sorghum seed.

On the marketing front, there has been hardly any old crop sales as grain continues to be supplied from WA and SA into the north. This is likely to continue into next year. In a ‘normal year’ you would expect some might be around 10-20% forward sold heading into spring. However, with the past 12-18 months in the rear-view mirror and the current BOM spring forecast, it’s expected most are sitting at or close to 0%. Even with southern NSW and VIC looking quite good these areas are lacking forward sales engagement and this lack of liquidity is one of the main factors pushing new crop values higher.

 

Pictured: Dairy operation near Bega NSW.

 

Prices as at 25th July

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

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CNSW Market Update – 19/07/2019

Anthony Hall, Regional Manager NSW & QLD

2 minute read

The wind has finally subsided. It’s been two weeks of pretty solid winds which have been tough on crops and difficult to actively keep on top of in crop sprays. Over the last two days conditions have improved. On my trip up north this week I passed plenty of spraying rigs out and about. Temperatures are on the rise into the early 20’s which is a little concerning with no rain on the forecast. Crops are sitting on minimal moisture with shallow roots and no secondary root systems. If we see prolonged hot weather they’re going to fall over quickly.

Driving into QLD from Dubbo this week and some areas are a standout compared to the balance of the state. North and north east of Moree crops look to have tapped into some deep moisture, have full ground cover and progressing well. Once you get to Goondiwindi it becomes a little more hit a miss on the good crops and the further north crops get worse. The better area is north east of Goondiwindi. I saw some cracking wheat and barley crops between there and Millmerran. The inner and western Downs has a much higher percentage of fallow paddock than winter crops which was no surprise. Cereals in the ground looked to be holding on, however they don’t have full ground cover yet and sitting on minimal moisture so without a kind spring, yield will be questionable.

Pictured: Moonie Crossroads QLD – wheat.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Prices as at 19th July

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

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CNSW Market Update – 12/07/2019

Anthony Hall, Regional Manager NSW & QLD

2 minute read

So, it can still rain! This is the best general widespread rainfall we have seen in a while. It’s certainly not drought breaking falls and it’s very late but we will take it anyway. Some of the heavier falls of 15mm fell in Coona, Gunnedah, Boggabri, Condo and Bathurst. The balance of the central and northern NSW got around 5-10mm. It’s not enough to spark a frenzy of late sowing but it will freshen the crops in the ground and may germinate some of the patchy crops, otherwise it will be banked as fallow for summer.

It was however disappointing for most of the QLD cropping belt. The patch of white on the map below is right over the Downs region. The little number of crops planted are really struggling and nothing more will be sown this winter. There is going to have to be a big turnaround in the weather patterns for a decent summer cropping opportunity. Moving up into central QLD it’s a different story all together. Cereals are out in head and chick peas are flowering all with plenty of moisture underneath. The last of the sorghum is coming off now. Most are very happy with yields thanks to the late in crop falls which saw the sorghum re-tiller and add increase yields.

We’re still seeing plenty of farmer demand for grain to feed livestock. With the dollars being paid for lambs I can’t imagine this demand falling off any time soon. All feed grains are still well into the $400’s, and with new crop harvest still three to four months away, it’s not expected we will see any down side on prices until then. With each fall of rain, we see a little bit of feed growth in the paddocks but it’s always short lived as it’s not wet enough to keep up with livestock demand.

Prices as at 12th July

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

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SNSW Market Update 12/07/2019

Anthony Hall, Regional Manager NSW & QLD

2.5 minute read

The change that came through last weekend brought some more welcomed rainfall. The falls were heavier across the southern part of NSW and across to the south east, following similar patters as the last three to four falls. The difference this week was the central part of NSW received rain this time. The likes of Condo and The Lake managed to catch 10-15mm. There is still a big divide between the central part of NSW and the southern. The southern crops are well established and sitting on good moisture were as anything in the central part was late and living hand to mouth on small showers of rain. If we don’t get a kind spring, a lot of later crops will struggle to make grain. We have certainly seen the best of the winter weather this week; cold and windy which will slow everything down for a couple of weeks.

There is still bit of barley and wheat trading to those feeding livestock. Demand is a little greater in the central region and northern NSW due to the poor season. While there is not a lot of difference between wheat and barley, most are leaning towards barley as it is a little safer. The big question is what will happen to prices over the coming months? We are still trading at $80/MT premium over new crop values. It’s expected as consumers seek comfort in their stocks through to October they will take a back seat on purchases and see if there is a correction in values. Spring weather conditions is still the big decider on what the size of the new crop will be. It’s forecast to be below average rainfall so it’s anyone’s guess how prices will unfold.

 

Pictured: crops looking good south of Urana

Prices as at 12th July

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

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CNSW Market Update – 5/07/2019

Anthony Hall, Regional Manager NSW & QLD

2 minute read

The forecasted rain mentioned last week unfortunately didn’t deliver anything like predicted. Some areas got 3mm-5mm but most received nothing. Given how late we are into the sowing window, one would think fallow country will be pushed into summer opportunities, which are still up in the air at the moment. Moisture profiles are low meaning we will need a very favourable spring to confidently get anything in for summer. Winter crop conditions are deteriorating at a rapid pace. Given we’ve had no rain since the four solid frosts in a row two weeks ago and the temperatures are back into the 20’s feeling like spring, this isn’t surprising. There is hopeful thinking the predicted change on Monday and Tuesday will yield something. Fingers crossed this results in more than just dust settling falls.

Wheat and barley in the central QLD cropping belt have come out in head so they are praying their frosts are finished for the year. If southern QLD has a few more weeks with this weather, they too will be pushing heads out and finishing too early with no moisture. Some decisions will need to be made on the marginal crops throughout NSW; stock feed or take a punt on some rain.

Prices as at 4th July

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

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CNSW Market Update – 28/06/2019

Anthony Hall, Regional Manager NSW & QLD

2 minute read

There is little change to report this week throughout central NSW up to central QLD. There has been no rain and unfortunately there is nothing on the forecast for the next 15 days. The frosts have eased and the temperature has crept back up to the early 20’s. There is a notable change in crop conditions post four cracking frosts in a row and subsoil moisture depleting. Crops have started to slow in growth, have lost a lot of colour and are showing signs of stress. We’re seeing a lot of livestock being turned out on crops to make the most of what is currently there, especially on a bleak forecast.

I took a trip through the Liverpool Plains area this week. They were blessed with up to three to four inches of rain in June and everyone thought this was the break they needed. It’s amazing how quickly things turn around and they’re slipping back into drought conditions very fast. There is still potential for a crop, however without rain in the coming three to four weeks it will be stock feed.

Markets were all over the place this week. It’s a little quiet on the bid and offer at the moment so hard to pinpoint values. The trade and consumers are watching the weather forecast very closely as the east coast’s potential of a crop worsens and grower’s concerns about committing to any sales are increasing while there is a below average outlook for production.

Pictured: Canola near Coolah looking good but in need of rain

Prices as at 27th June

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

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CNSW Market Update – 21/06/2019

Anthony Hall, Regional Manager NSW & QLD

1.5 minute read

There were a few isolated falls in northern NSW and the Downs region of QLD this week. This was similar to last week with only 4-5mm falling which unfortunately is not going to change the outlook for this winter. Most of the cropping belt for NNSW and QLD remains unchanged and everyone is still holding out for something positive to happen on the forecast before planting can progress any further. It’s expected this late in the season, even if it did break in July, we would only see a small amount of short season barley being planted, mainly for livestock. The forecast for the next seven days is dry and cold, and we have seen some cracking frosts with more forecast to come. With the cold weather and frosts we all know it exacerbates the dry as plant growth slows and more moisture is lost. The 14-day forecast has some areas in for around 10mm, fingers crossed this one comes through as predicted.

Demand for stock feed is on the rise again this week. Supplementary feeders are looking at the weather forecast and preparing for continued dry by replenishing stocks.

For those lucky enough to have a crop in, reports are they need another drink and are just holding in there. The frosts are starting to take their toll and moisture is running out. If we go another two weeks without rain, the outlook could be completely different.

Prices as at 21st June

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

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