SNSW Market Update 16/08/2019

Matthew Noonan, Account Manager Southern NSW

2.5 minute read

Falls over last weekend were on the mark for most areas with 5-10mm’s recorded in the majority of locations through southern NSW. Some of this even reached the northern areas of the Port Kembla zone. This amounts to keeping the top layer somewhat wet in a lot of locations but sub-soil moisture will eventually come into play as September and October will determine how these crops finish.

Wheat markets are similar week on week with small up and down movements day to day. The Griffith market zone has been bid around $355-360/MT for August and September with a gap of $5-10/MT still present between the offers. Some sales are going through on the lower end of this spread. There may be small shorts over the next few months but overall, the old crop market will fluctuate in-line with the new crop hopes and not necessarily just look in our own back yard for pricing signals. Port Kembla track 2019/20 APW1 MG has softened week on week with the USDA WASDE report dropping futures early this week. We’re now sitting at around $360-365/MT week on week which still provides a level to reduce price risk heading into harvest, but for many in southern NSW, more time needs to pass by in this crop’s life for sales to begin.

Barley is still lacking demand overall, but with the current spread to wheat on new crop this may not be the case heading into 2020. It looks as though there is more unsold wheat than barley onfarm through much of NSW, so going into harvest we will be ultra-low on barley carry in stocks. This could keep prices firm through NSW, but with a likely bigger crop year on year, VIC/SA looking at large supplies coming online and not much of an export market for Australian barley, prices could come under pressure as we get into harvest.

New season canola crops around southern NSW are starting to flower and are looking rather good. Some finishing rain to fill pods could mean we have a comfortable supply year for crushers and consumers. However, it will only be just enough overall as carry in stocks will be low. It’s expected prices will hold until harvest, what happens then will be determined by crop yields and size as we head south.

 
 

Pictured: Wheat and canola crops in Murrami NSW.

 

Prices as at 15th August

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

Follow us on social media

CNSW Market Update – 09/08/2019

Anthony Hall, Regional Manager NSW & QLD

1.5 minute read

It’s hard not to sound like a broken record with the current weather pattern continuing as it has been and not favouring this year’s winter crop production. Unfortunately, the only thing different to last week’s report is crops have deteriorated more. Early crops that have tapped into some deeper moisture are holding on and still looking ok, but desperately need rain to maintain yield potential. Anything trying to survive with roots in the top soil only has either started to turn blue or pushed out a head at 3 inches in height. The next concern is the frost predicted in the next five days. I’ve seen plenty of flowering crops in QLD this week which is not going to be ideal. With the forecast for a dry spring and a lot of crops in need of decent spring falls to make grain many are leaning towards making the most of what they have standing and cutting into hay.

Speaking with agronomists and sorghum seed suppliers over the last week and the general consensus is forage seed is already in tight supply and with a sniff of a good forecast, grain seed will be also. Growers are being advised to commit early if they want to secure their preferred sorghum variety.

Pictured: Crops 10KM south of Goondiwindii

 

 

Prices as at 9th August

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

Follow us on social media

SNSW Market Update 09/08/2019

Matthew Noonan, Account Manager Southern NSW

2.5 minute read

We’ve seen a few small frosts this week through much of the Riverina. This isn’t too much of a worry at this stage, but it will suck some of the much-needed moisture from the ground. There is a change coming later in the week which will hopefully bring 5-10mm. I’ve said it before and I will say it again; southern NSW has some great potential this season, but with big bulky crops comes hungry crops, particularly if we see any heat in next four to eight weeks. Based on this, right now through much of the region we need a minimum 20mm’s to keep up to them.

Wheat markets have remained relatively unchanged to slightly firmer this week. It has been bid around $365-375/MT throughout the week with some offers meeting the bid or at least getting mid-way to the offers which have been from $375-380/MT. The new crop market is very illiquid with strong bids of low $370’s/MT Port Kembla track but next to no interest at this stage. Forward contracts aren’t exactly front of mind for most, as they’re waiting to get through the next little period where frost/heat could be concerns.

Barley on old crop is still very steady. Smalls are trading in the $340-360/MT exfarm level with most delivered homes pricing around the same level. New crop with its current spread to wheat may start to garner some attention for 2020, but for the most part, the bid/offer spread is wide.

Both old and new canola is steady to slightly firmer week on week. This is mostly due to the relatively dry SNSW forecast and the possibility yield prospects could decline. Plus, for now, WA prices don’t allow for canola to make its way around this season.

 

Prices as at 8th August

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

Follow us on social media

CNSW Market Update – 02/08/2019

Anthony Hall, Regional Manager NSW & QLD

2 minute read

Another week without any rain for NSW, and we are breaking records for all the wrong reasons. There were a number of towns that set all-time records in July for the lowest rainfall received. Moving into QLD, there were some isolated falls in central QLD which will be perfect timing for most of their crops as they start flowering. The further south you went the lighter the falls were.

Talking to CRT stores and agronomist this week to get feel for what growers in QLD and NNSW are thinking about summer cropping opportunity. It would come as no surprise we have record areas of fallow country due to no significant winter break. If we even get a hint of a decent rainfall event in the coming months everyone will be ready to start sowing something. We desperately need ground cover, stock feed and a chance to generate some income from a grain crop. The big limiting factor we have this year is all this fallow country is sitting there with minimal moisture content and it is risky business trying to grow summer crops in times like this. Fingers crossed for a wet one.

This week I was in QLD visiting sugar cane growers and broadacre farmers in Ayr, Ingham and Townsville. Outside of the flood affected areas from the December falls things are looking good. They have started cutting cane and in general, yields are good but sugar content in some crops is a little lower than normal. There is a growing trend among some farmers to diversify away from being 100% cane farmers especially in areas where there is irrigation. Low sugar prices would be one of the main drivers for this. The crops of choice are corn, soy beans, mung beans and sorghum. The area has great growing conditions and as long as they can avoid a wet harvest, they have the potential to pull off some big yields. As these crops aren’t common for the area, the limiting factors are poor logistics, a lack of consumers and minimal onfarm storage.

 


Pictured: Sugar cane and corn crop in Ayr QLD.

 

Prices as at 1st August

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

Follow us on social media

SNSW Market Update 02/08/2019

Matthew Noonan, Account Manager Southern NSW

3 minute read

Much of southern NSW received a good drink of 5-15mm’s last weekend and into Monday. This consolidates current potential through eastern, western and southern Riverina and allows crops to get well into August. Northern Riverina and heading into the central west and northern south west slopes were unfortunately on the lighter end again with 0-5mm’s. This area desperately needs a decent drink in August before we get into September and temperatures start to warm up.

The past week has seen steady pricing for the most part. Old crop has continued to firm slightly with Griffith market zone now pricing around $365-370/MT Aug-Sep delivery. New crop bids on the east coast continue with a cautious sideways to slightly firmer movement looking for some engagement. Over the next four to eight weeks weather in southern NSW will be closely watched to see if this area can hold somewhere near its current potential which will help bring supplies to better levels than last year for NSW as a whole.

Old crop barley has maintained its pricing levels this week. There are still smalls moving from SA/VIC/SNSW into the north and east of NSW for livestock feeders (mostly ewes/lambs). The next few weeks should start to see some livestock removed from paddocks where it looks like good grain/hay potential is present. Some crops in the north will be forfeited to livestock with current crop conditions and seasonal outlook for spring. New crop values have also remained steady to slightly firmer with the same factors as wheat playing out i.e. lack of liquidity and concern over the NSW crop and where production will end up.

New crop canola stayed firm week on week with again similar factors to wheat and barley playing out. Some paddocks around have started to flower but overall canola needs to see production potential hold for the most part everywhere on the east coast. If we were to lose say 10-20% of current potential this would really put pressure on supply into key consumers, and at this stage, WA canola pricing doesn’t particularly work to the east coast ports.

 

Pictured: Frosty morning in Coolamon

Prices as at 2nd August

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

Follow us on social media

CNSW Market Update – 26/07/2019

Anthony Hall, Regional Manager NSW & QLD

2 minute read

The current weather position has held its status quo of not much rainfall for northern NSW and into QLD. Unfortunately, the forecast doesn’t lend itself to any improvement in moisture levels. This will continue to put pressure on crops that have been planted and are out of the ground. Some of these are hitting walls and starting to deteriorate through central NSW, northern NSW and southern QLD. There are a few exceptions around where plants have been able to push below and tap into lower moisture levels. Driving into the south from Dubbo through to the south coast this week and the majority of crops from Manildra through to Boorowa are looking quite good. However, as you head over the mountains through to the south coast it becomes a lot more hit and miss.

The hope at present is we see good spring/summer rainfall in the north. If this eventuates, we will see wall to wall sorghum, corn and dryland cotton planted as there is plenty of fallowed paddocks ready to go. The only inhibiting factor here could be the supply of sorghum seed.

On the marketing front, there has been hardly any old crop sales as grain continues to be supplied from WA and SA into the north. This is likely to continue into next year. In a ‘normal year’ you would expect some might be around 10-20% forward sold heading into spring. However, with the past 12-18 months in the rear-view mirror and the current BOM spring forecast, it’s expected most are sitting at or close to 0%. Even with southern NSW and VIC looking quite good these areas are lacking forward sales engagement and this lack of liquidity is one of the main factors pushing new crop values higher.

 

Pictured: Dairy operation near Bega NSW.

 

Prices as at 25th July

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

Follow us on social media

SNSW Market Update 26/07/2019

Matthew Noonan, Account Manager Southern NSW

3 minute read

Crop conditions in the Southern third of NSW are looking good and fingers crossed they can maintain their current potential. The current fortnight’s forecast isn’t overly positive at a time when we will start to see temperatures possibly warm up and crops advance further drawing on moisture reserves. There is cautious optimism around how good things are looking at the moment, but many are commenting that moisture levels in the majority of areas isn’t full. So, to maintain a decent season we need to get at least 60-100% of our average monthly rainfall over August, September and October.

Old crop wheat values have levelled out after the recent dip. There are still some sellers out there with supplies mostly onfarm. The increased activity looks to have been the cause of a drop in values. Consumers took more cover during this time and we could be looking at one (maybe two) more opportunities where gaps might exist in demand between now and new crop. One positive for pricing on both old and new crop, is with the recent lighter rainfall totals and a dry forecast for the next two to three weeks, southern NSW crops are at a cross roads with regards to production, putting some heat under new crop bids. Port Kembla track is now sitting closer to $360/MT or above.

There is limited change on the barley front. We’re still seeing light demand causing values over the past few weeks to fall away. New crop is working similar to wheat in that it’s firmed up to around $295-300/MT, this is also likely from the current forecast and lack of liquidity. The main hope for barley into 2020 is that if it maintains its spread of $30-40/MT under feed wheat values it will wrestle back some demand throughout the east coast.

As per previous reports, old crop canola is done from the consumers point of view with a lack of demand and current better prospects on new crop condition through much of VIC and southern NSW. Like wheat and barley there is a consistent lack of willing sellers on new crop, so prices have edged higher over the past week. This firmness will likely maintain until new crop is just about to come off and sellers start coming to the table.

 
 

Pictured: Good looking crop between Narrandera and Wagga Wagga.

Prices as at 25th July

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

Follow us on social media

CNSW Market Update – 19/07/2019

Anthony Hall, Regional Manager NSW & QLD

2 minute read

The wind has finally subsided. It’s been two weeks of pretty solid winds which have been tough on crops and difficult to actively keep on top of in crop sprays. Over the last two days conditions have improved. On my trip up north this week I passed plenty of spraying rigs out and about. Temperatures are on the rise into the early 20’s which is a little concerning with no rain on the forecast. Crops are sitting on minimal moisture with shallow roots and no secondary root systems. If we see prolonged hot weather they’re going to fall over quickly.

Driving into QLD from Dubbo this week and some areas are a standout compared to the balance of the state. North and north east of Moree crops look to have tapped into some deep moisture, have full ground cover and progressing well. Once you get to Goondiwindi it becomes a little more hit a miss on the good crops and the further north crops get worse. The better area is north east of Goondiwindi. I saw some cracking wheat and barley crops between there and Millmerran. The inner and western Downs has a much higher percentage of fallow paddock than winter crops which was no surprise. Cereals in the ground looked to be holding on, however they don’t have full ground cover yet and sitting on minimal moisture so without a kind spring, yield will be questionable.

Pictured: Moonie Crossroads QLD – wheat.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Prices as at 19th July

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

Follow us on social media

SNSW Market Update 19/07/2019

Matthew Noonan, Account Manager Southern NSW

3 minute read

Most of the rainfall this week fell in the south east of the cropping belt or into the slopes with crop condition in the south looking healthy overall. Hopefully this continues as the months roll on as the southern third of NSW will shoulder the majority of NSW production this season. The state as a whole should produce much more grain than last year but will be concentrated south of the Mid-Western Highway and east of Newell in south eastern areas. Old crop markets have lost some significant dollars recently with a mixture of grower and trade grain coming to the table over the past few weeks.

Old crop wheat has really dipped the last few weeks. This is due to a mixture of grower grain finally sussing out markets and selling tonnes post June 30, and the continued selling of old crop supplies by traders. This has provided good comfort for consumers to push out their cover on old crop just a little closer to new crop where the discounts through Southern NSW have been around $50-60/MT. Old crop Griffith market has retreated to around the $365-370/MT level. As for new crop pricing, the next four to six week’s direction hinges on the crop’s prospects. If we can maintain the current potential in the majority of areas it could eventually soften as we head into harvest. However, should below average rainfall or warmer than normal temperatures bring yield penalties and reduce the crop size, prices will stay firm and may increase over time.

Barley continues to be a hard commodity to move through much of the Riverina with grazier demand not at levels like this time last year. Most major market zones are using a majority of wheat in the ration due to barley price being similar to wheat in most cases. There is still $380-400/MT exfarm sales happening for a load here and there, but overall the market is pegged at around $340-360/MT. New crop is still holding its ground at around $290/MT Port Kembla track which is sitting at a good level in comparison to new crop ASW1 with a discount of $30-40/MT. If this spread is maintained, it may be enough to wrestle back some demand into domestic homes and allow more volume to move come harvest and into 2020.

 
Canola mostly held its pricing levels this week. As per above the southern and eastern parts of NSW will have to shoulder the majority of NSW’s production prospects. As a whole, it looks like the crop will likely be larger than last year by a considerable amount which should make it easier for crushers to accumulate their 2020 requirements. This should spell out to most that canola will be a good harvest sell at current levels providing a sale at a very good decile and also cashflow early in the harvest.

Pictured: Barley, canola and Long Sword wheat north of Barellan NSW.

Prices as at 18th July

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

Follow us on social media

CNSW Market Update – 12/07/2019

Anthony Hall, Regional Manager NSW & QLD

2 minute read

So, it can still rain! This is the best general widespread rainfall we have seen in a while. It’s certainly not drought breaking falls and it’s very late but we will take it anyway. Some of the heavier falls of 15mm fell in Coona, Gunnedah, Boggabri, Condo and Bathurst. The balance of the central and northern NSW got around 5-10mm. It’s not enough to spark a frenzy of late sowing but it will freshen the crops in the ground and may germinate some of the patchy crops, otherwise it will be banked as fallow for summer.

It was however disappointing for most of the QLD cropping belt. The patch of white on the map below is right over the Downs region. The little number of crops planted are really struggling and nothing more will be sown this winter. There is going to have to be a big turnaround in the weather patterns for a decent summer cropping opportunity. Moving up into central QLD it’s a different story all together. Cereals are out in head and chick peas are flowering all with plenty of moisture underneath. The last of the sorghum is coming off now. Most are very happy with yields thanks to the late in crop falls which saw the sorghum re-tiller and add increase yields.

We’re still seeing plenty of farmer demand for grain to feed livestock. With the dollars being paid for lambs I can’t imagine this demand falling off any time soon. All feed grains are still well into the $400’s, and with new crop harvest still three to four months away, it’s not expected we will see any down side on prices until then. With each fall of rain, we see a little bit of feed growth in the paddocks but it’s always short lived as it’s not wet enough to keep up with livestock demand.

Prices as at 12th July

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

Follow us on social media