CNSW Market Update – 14/06/2019

Anthony Hall, Regional Manager NSW & QLD

1 minute read

There has been a little bit of rain around this week in central NSW up to the Darling Downs but only enough to settle the dust with 3-6mm recorded. It may help fill in the un-germinated patches where people have dry sown and freshen up what’s out of the ground, but without follow up rain within the next two weeks we will be back on a knifes edge. Growers are still holding hope something will fall this month and planting can continue. It’s late, but history has shown we can still grow a crop if there is a kind spring.

We are still at a standstill for sowing activity. There may be a little bit of spraying required on fallow country after two small falls, but outside of that there is not much diesel being burnt.

Markets were down in front of the last rain forecast but quickly recovered lost ground once the falls were noted less than first expected.

Prices as at 14th June

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

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SNSW Market Update 14/06/2019

Matthew Noonan, Agfarm Account Manager

2.5 minute read

This past week has seen most locations in southern NSW, Riverina and southern South West Slopes receive 8-20mm’s (more in some cases) with lighter falls moving into the Central West of around 1-5mm’s. With some production certainty creeping in throughout the southern third of NSW smalls of new crop may be looked at with pricing mostly around decile 8 or better.

Old crop wheat markets softened on the back of rains throughout WA, SA and south east Australia over the past week. However, with futures remaining neutral to bullish for now, local and international pricing looks like it will continue its yo-yo affect through to new crop. The Griffith market got down to $370-375/MT delivered earlier in the week but the past few days has pushed higher again searching for a bid towards $385-390/MT plus. The new crop Port Kembla track market is slightly firmer week on week up to $350-355/MT which has two drivers at present. The northern Port Kembla zone still lagging condition wise and the overseas world supply picture is somewhat bearish but getting pushed along by US corn and some dryness in Russia and Canada.

Barley remains rather steady and through much of southern NSW and into the South West Slopes at minimal margin to old crop wheat. As moisture builds in some grazing crops it may provide graziers a chance to reduce feeding requirements, but with current lamb prices and plenty of interest in store lambs, some feeding should continue keeping a base under this part of the barley market. New crop is also steady with Port Kembla track still around $285-290/MT. The spread from wheat (ASW1 spread) is around $40-45/MT which makes wheat a better sell, but the Australian barley crop should be quite decent so current prices going the distance could be seen as ok levels subject to how the rest of the season pans out across the country.

Canola pricing is not doing much at all. Crushers are relatively well covered through to new crop with fair value around $600-613/MT Port Kembla track at present.

New crop remains steady even though VIC and southern NSW received reasonably good growing conditions with recent rains but the underlying feeling is that acres are less year on year and conditions in the Central West are not allowing canola to get going. There was talk of some canola having to get replanted due to crusting over of the soil from heavy rains in May.

Pictured: Canola in Murrami NSW

Prices as at 14th June

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

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CNSW Market Update – 07/06/2019

Anthony Hall, Regional Manager NSW & QLD

1.5 minute read

There has been no rain to report this week however the temperature is definitely telling us winter has arrived. There is rain activity popping up on the 10 day forecast, showing bigger falls in the southern part of Australia and along the coast line. Unfortunately, there is not a lot showing for central NSW through to southern QLD.

It is getting late in the season to sow. In areas where summer cropping is possible, they’re saying if they haven’t sown a winter crop within the next three weeks they will switch to summer and conserve what moisture is there.

All farming activity seems to be in a holding pattern at the moment. Anyone who had moisture has finished sowing or run out of moisture so pulled up until the next rain. It’s really hard to make a general comment on what has been sown and its current conditions. Anyone who had some stubble cover and banked a little bit of moisture through summer have a good germination and crops are holding in. The areas with no stubble cover or that was worked for weed control in summer has experienced extremely patchy germination.

The markets have reacted in advance of the rain forecasted. Most feed values fell in the later part of the week.

Prices as at 6th June

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

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SNSW Market Update 07/06/2019

Matthew Noonan, Agfarm Account Manager

2.5 minute read

We are definitely right in the middle of weather markets both locally and internationally with local markets dropping around $5-10/MT or more over the last week on the back of forecast rainfall across much of the WA cropping belt and also further rain forecast for SA, VIC and southern NSW. There are no real major falls predicted, but anything above 5mm’s will keep a lot of these regions ticking along nicely for now. There is still a reasonable amount of area in the central and northern parts of NSW that remain dry and will need some drastic change shortly to assist either crops already in the ground or the potential of more plantings. Overseas continues to bring a little uncertainty, mostly from corn in the US with a delay in plantings. Wheat has been following suit in markets but overall should not be too bad with the Black Sea and Europe looking at reasonable crop sizes this year.

The run up in wheat markets was relatively short lived with most domestic markets on the east coast back $5-10/MT or more week on week due to the current forecast weather events on both the west and east coasts. This will likely play out for old crop over the coming months with any extended dry outlook likely to increase values while weather events will pressure prices to the down side. Griffith market zone started the week out at around the $400-405/MT mark but by the end was seeing a lack of demand (bid side) and offers chasing the market down to around $390/MT delivered Griffith. Young market zone is still at a small premium to Griffith. New crop values have also slid over the past week down around $10-20/MT at $345-350/MT Port Kembla track which is still in the top 5-10% of historical prices.

Barley is slow going on the demand side. Some grazing demand over the last month has crept into the market as weather has turned cold limiting pasture and/or grazing crop growth. This may continue for the next one to two months especially with lamb prices heading well north of $8.00/kg in recent weeks. I would suggest if you are holding old crop stock and able to sell at levels around or above $400/MT exfarm to continue to do so. New crop has increased slightly closing the gap/spread between wheat at $285-290/MT Port Kembla track.

 
Oilseeds remain well supported locally with limited liquidity and possible reduction in planted acres across the whole country meaning new crop supply, even if close to average yields are achieved, should still be tight on supply for next year.

Prices as at 7th June

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

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CNSW Market Update – 31/05/2019

Anthony Hall, Regional Manager NSW & QLD

1.5 minute read

The most appropriate way to describe current crop conditions through much of the north is patchy. Storms over the last few months have created a few areas where crops are out of the ground and looking good, while other areas require more soil moisture to get going. Over the coming weeks we could still lose acres with some discussion around conserving winter moisture for spring/summer crops instead of taking a gamble on winter cereals. Central QLD, Eastern Downs and parts of NE NSW like the Liverpool plains are looking good but you don’t have to go too far at times to see crops lagging behind.

Local markets continue to strengthen, the obvious driver is the continued dry conditions and lack luste forecast through much of Northern NSW. Offshore factors such as delayed US corn plantings have pushed up CBOT futures and in turn WA and SA export markets.

Given the current flow of grain from these regions into our major feed and consumer homes in the North of NSW & Southern QLD, week on week delivered consumer prices we are up $5-10/MT on wheat and barley. Delivered Darling Downs SFW1 July is bid around $415-420/MT at present with barley only $5-10 under wheat and Sorghum around $30-50/MT under. New Crop markets are also rising due to the same reasons explained above, year on year we look like producing more cereals on the East Coast and will likely remain the best paying market for WA and SA grain.

Pictured: Good looking irrigated wheat crop near Gunnedah, NSW.

Prices as at 31st May

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

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SNSW Market Update 31/05/2019

Matthew Noonan, Agfarm Account Manager

2.5 minute read

A majority of planting is now finished in the southern third of NSW, with crops at varying growth stages, but overall looking better year on year. As you head into the Central West, plantings have been a bit later and there are still some acres to go in pending further moisture, with final acreage to be determine in the next 2-4 weeks. As we sit right now you could pencil in a larger Riverina / Murray crop than last year, with spring rainfall set to be the major factor.

Markets have surged high this week due to the compounding effects of local dryness and decreased corn plantings in the US. Consumers and trade alike are showing increased interest as continued dryness puts upwards pressure on local prices. This is being supported by wide spread flooding in the US corn belt, where there is talk of a large decrease in plantings and possible yield penalties. These factors have led to strong gains across wheat, particularly to consumers with small amounts of forward cover.

The 2019/20 season should bring a year on year increase on production through much of Southern NSW & the Southern Central West, presenting an opportunity for those with old crop supply to take advantage of this current rally. So far, we have recovered 50-60% of the fall since the harvest highs, supposing the question, can it keep going. One idea would be to start some sales and average up and protect some downside risk as this year has proven it can happen. The current Griffith Market Zone is bid around $395-400/MT with some business likely going through a touch higher. The South West Slopes markets are very similar with increases marginally higher than Griffith. New crop has continued to go from strength to strength on the pricing front with the Port Kembla APW1 Track market now around $368-375/MT. Considering the condition of majority of Southern NSW I would say this is at a premium for now but is most likely being run up by external factors.

Barley is slowly following wheat values up, but still lacks demand as most large consumers have preferred wheat & sorghum over the past 3-6 months. Some grazing demand is creeping in now it has gone cold and lamb markets are hitting some good highs again. I have no doubt grain will be getting sold for $400/MT plus Ex-Farm through much of the region, which for me is a continued sell. As far as new crop goes, it is remaining subdued compared to wheat with the ASW1 – F1 spread at around $70-80/MT. With the prospect of a larger crop of barley nationally and current uncertainty around one of our major export destinations in China, a $230-250/MT site price or $240-260/MT Ex-Farm Jan 2020 might end up being a good sell.

At present, oilseeds are probably a small follower of the corn and wheat markets at present giving small increases on old and new crop. As per previous reports it is probably better to stand aside from marketing new crop and try to sell down old crop inventory. As we see it though, the East Coast will most likely grow what they require for local crushing/feed demand and not much more.

Pictured: Canola off to a good start near Berrigan, NSW.

Prices as at 31st May

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

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CNSW Market Update – 24/05/2019

Anthony Hall, Regional Manager NSW & QLD

1.5 minute read

No rain to report on this week so unfortunately sowing hasn’t really progressed with a fair percentage of central and northern NSW and southern QLD yet to make a start. Some areas to note that have got a crop in are Goondiwindi, north east of Moree and a strip from Gilgandra up to Coonamble and across to Coonabarabran and the Liverpool Plains. These areas have experienced a good germination and crops are growing very fast due to the unseasonal warm weather. There is concern though around moisture levels and follow up rain will be required within the next three to four weeks. For the dry sown areas and those yet to make a start, it is getting late in the season and yield potential will be cut the further they are pushed into June and July for planting. There looks to be a rain event coming throughout NSW and QLD in the first week of June, fingers crossed this eventuates.

The markets have responded to the dry outlook and late season this week with strong demand and strengthening of prices for all feed grains. Consumers are looking to gain coverage and get some length in their stock positions incase we see a repeat of last year.

Pictured: Good looking crop 20km west of Wee Waa.

Prices as at 24th May

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

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SNSW Market Update 24/05/2019

Matthew Noonan, Agfarm Account Manager

2.5 minute read

Planting has continued over the past week through much of southern NSW. Most farmers south of the Murrumbidgee will be finished now and starting on pre-emergence sprays. In the north of Port Kembla zone there are still some acres to be planted with a few waiting for another change to come through and provide some moisture to sow into. Overall, two thirds of southern NSW would be in the ground and fairing ok at this stage. But with mild conditions over the past month, further rains are needed to keep crops ticking along.

The current short-term forecast (next two to three weeks) showing little rain has kept some firmness under old and new crop wheat markets alike. Griffith market zone has started to march higher. In some instances, being bid close to $370/MT June delivery with offers higher than this of late. This current rally provides opportunities for those holding old crop stocks onfarm to chip away and regain some of the recent loss in market value. As for new crop, at this stage non-physical marketing options might be better utilised, but as far as new crop market goes, Port Kembla it is ranging around $335-345/MT track, which is at a discount to old crop but only by $35-40/MT.

Small livestock demand continues for barley with over the fence (grower to grower) deals happening around the $400/MT exfarm mark throughout much of southern NSW. It is hard to shift large parcels at these premiums. Bids on the track market for old crop are still steady at around $370/MT Port Kembla track (+/-$5). There will likely be more acres of barley around if reports of planting hold true through much of Australia. So, anything near average to slightly below will mean a reasonably large Australian barley crop. This and current China issues keeps a cap on new crop pricing at $275-280/MT Port Kembla track with roughly a $85-90/MT discount to old crop. Prices at around $230-240/MT site might prove reasonable if the Australian barley crop as a whole is over 9MMT.

Old crop canola markets are slightly firmer week on week with Port Kembla track now above $600/MT again and ranging up to $607/MT in some sites. This is likely a result of lower plantings compared to the last few seasons which, unless we get above average yields come harvest, will likely cause stocks to be very tight on the east coast once new crop comes online. 2019/20 pricing is also up ranging between $580-595/MT track, but this is definitely a sit on the sidelines until you are super confident in your production for this year coming.

Pictured: cereal crops at Coolamon (left) and Galore (right)

Prices as at 24th May

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

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CNSW Market Update – 17/05/2019

Anthony Hall, Regional Manager NSW & QLD

1.5 minute read

The past week hasn’t brought any further planting rains for much of northern NSW or QLD cropping areas. The ideal planting window is fast running out so we may see eventual declines in northern east coast production. The next seven to 14 days are looking somewhat bleak for further rainfall chances to get planting either underway or consolidate what some have already received. As we head towards the weekend, there is a predicted change coming through and the forecast for the back end of next week is looking promising. It will be more than welcome.

With regards to markets, sorghum received some welcome news that China container demand was present earlier in the week which allowed the pricing to rally $15-20/MT in most locations through northern NSW and QLD. They continue to yo-yo a little up and down $5-10/MT in a day sometimes but this rally probably presents a good opportunity to enter the market with a percentage of unsold stock. Currently, delivered Darling Downs is priced in the mid $330’s/MT while Liverpool Plains is $360-370/MT delivered May-July.

Wheat and barley prices have moved sideways over the past week with Darling Downs markets for SFW1 around $380-385/MT July delivery and barley at around $10/MT under wheat values.

Pictured: Cereals in Barmedman NSW

Prices as at 16th May

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

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SNSW Market Update 17/05/2019

Matthew Noonan, Agfarm Account Manager

2.5 minute read

The last week has given farmers a clean run at planting with not much rainfall around. By the end of next week, most cropland south of the Murrumbidgee will be in the ground. North of the Murrumbidgee through Port Kembla zone are still looking for further planting rainfall to get the crops up and out of the ground. It is in the northern half of this zone the window for planting into moisture is fast closing and could have effects on germination going forward. We should be seeing another front on Monday/Tuesday next week but at this stage most forecasters don’t have much in it.

Most wheat markets have halted their recent slide, with Griffith market zone up roughly $3-5/MT week on week to around $350-355/MT for a May delivery. Most wheat south of the Murrumbidgee has had an average to above average start to the season with germination good. 50-100km’s above this line heading north, the opposite could be said with average to below average conditions prevailing over past four to six weeks. New crop prices have dropped significantly since the start of April but has bounced back $3-5/MT the past few days as CBOT has risen and local rainfall forecasts haven’t been ideal.

Barley markets have held ground over the past few weeks with a possible slight decline following wheat. The old crop Port Kembla track market is around $365-370/MT. There continues to be smalls sold into the livestock feeding market and barley continues to suffer a demand issue into larger feed homes competing with wheat and sorghum for a portion of the ration. Any increases on barley will be subject to how wheat fairs in the short to medium term. New crop barley has remained steady week on week as forecasts remain dry in the short term (7-14 days). Hectares may swing towards barley in the north as planting rains continue to evade us.

It is hard to see if much canola has dropped out of the rotation this year but should become clearer over the coming weeks as it emerges. Again, south of the Murrumbidgee planted hectares may be close to normal but the further north you head some hectares are reduced year on year. It will now come down to what goes in and how much it yields. If we see close to average yields, supply may be sufficient for east coast crushers but should they dip at any stage, prices may increase. For now, old crop prices remain solid at around $595-600/MT Port Kembla track while new crop has remained steady to up $1-5/MT with some buyers ranging around $580-590/MT. Historically this presents good pricing opportunities.

Pictured: Sunrise at Coolamon NSW

Prices as at 16th May

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

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