VIC Market Update – 16/08/2019

James Ryssenbeek, Regional Manager VIC

2 minute read

There was good rainfall over the weekend for a lot of the state, a result of the snowy cold front. There are further light showers forecasted for the coming days. It is getting a bit too wet in the western districts now and some barely is yellowing off following 40-70mm through the area.

I spent this week between the Echuca and Swan Hill areas. Crops are looking very healthy throughout which is great, but the area will need rain to finish well. There is a lot of planet barley through this area and quite a bit has been grazed but is still looking very strong. Interestingly, I was told yesterday by an agronomist there are flag leaves appearing in some barley crops around Deniliquin. So, there could be an early harvest and it could also increase risk of frost damage with early maturity.

Old crop markets remain stable in Victoria with most sales enquiry coming from those clearing out silos. New crop has bounced around a bit this week following the USDA crop posturing. We are starting to see growers take some early cereal positions capitalising on current numbers. The same goes for both export and domestic hay sales. With the latest BOM update suggesting more average rainfalls into September, optimism should stay high for a good finish.

Pictured: Cobra wheat Strathallan

Prices as at 16th August

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 
 

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VIC Market Update – 09/08/2019

James Ryssenbeek, Regional Manager VIC

2 minute read

There have been patchy rainfalls over the last 24 hours with a lot of cold wind. Birchip has had some great falls again at 17mm, which is really starting to set things up for a good season now. Hopefully there is more to come over the coming days.

I spent this week up in the north west of Victoria. There is still plenty of opportunity from Ouyen through to Swan Hill and north, but perhaps not quite the subsoil moisture support of their slightly southern compatriots. I saw good crops from Swan Hill through Chinkapook and then onto Ouyen. Crop condition starts to fall away once you get closer to and then north of Carwarp. We saw several clients west of Carwarp this week. All their crops are up, there aren’t obvious signs of stress, but rain is required sooner rather than later. It was blowing a gale there yesterday (Thursday) afternoon which wasn’t helpful!

Grain markets remain stable. We’re seeing increased onfarm grain offers from growers looking to free up storage in preparation for harvest. There is still only limited forward sales from those I have spoken with, however following last night’s rainfalls, some areas will be getting comfortable of good yields for cereal crops.

In other markets, new season milk contracts are being signed and prices are setting new personal bests for many, alas much of the benefit will be absorbed by water and feed costs. The dairy industry is starting to work through their fodder requirements to replace emergency stocks and normal requirements from broadacre croppers – a normal process, but thankfully there is a lot of crop to choose from compared with last year.

Pictured: plenty of dust rolling through south of Merrinee in Victoria.

Prices as at 9th August

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 
 

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VIC Market Update – 02/08/2019

James Ryssenbeek, Regional Manager VIC

1.5 minute read

More rainfall, more urea and more money required are the common themes this week. There were good rainfalls earlier in the week along the VIC/NSW border from Robinvale through southern NSW, Deniliquin through to Albury then south into northern Victoria. Swan Hill picked up a needed 15-25mm as did Echuca. Unfortunately, the north west corner has again missed out.

For the Mallee, many are telling me they’re done now in their barley and canola crops, baring spray, and as a general comment everything looks very good. Being a drier week down south, it’s expected sowing rigs will be getting close to finishing up the missed parts with a short season spring barley.

Markets this week have been fairly stagnant with buyers and sellers watching the new crop with little interest in old crop for now. New crop rises from last week haven’t held this week. Conditions at this moment are generally very good in Victoria and we’ll watch to see what unfolds for spring in Vic and importantly NSW and QLD.

Prices as at 2nd August

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 
 

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VIC Market Update – 26/07/2019

James Ryssenbeek, Regional Manager VIC

1.5 minute read

I have been on the road again this week, tracking from Drung through to Goroke, Hopetoun and then back down to Brim. Just quietly… wow. In general, most of this part of Victoria picked up good rainfall through summer, followed up by good rains since sowing. Following the strong prices last harvest, many growers have planted Faba beans, as well as plenty of canola and vetch. The consistency of crop health and size across all crop types is impressive. However, it is important to remember last season’s outcome. A lot of growers will be looking for 2 seasons from one to catch up from disappointing results last year. It has also been a financially challenging season for some with little crop last year, followed by an expensive summer spraying program. Still, you wouldn’t trade away this start.

Most growers in the areas I have visited this week are reporting that crop health is good, but they would like to start some preventative spraying, however wind and boggy paddocks are delaying this to a point. Most growers will also be looking to start fungicide application in the coming weeks. There has been little forward selling despite the good start, with some thinking they will start looking at numbers in the coming month if the good conditions continue. A comforting thought for many if the weather does dry out as the BOM is predicting, is that hay will be a good plan B. there is enough moisture for good yields, and definitely plenty of demand – Vic drought stockpiles will need to be replaced and with NSW and QLD looking at continued dry weather, there will be plenty of homes for Victorian hay.

Pictured: cereals, pulses and canola all looking good in Victoria.

 
 
 
 
 

Prices as at 26th July

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 
 

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VIC Market Update – 19/07/2019

James Ryssenbeek, Regional Manager VIC

1.5 minute read

The first week back from holidays, and off see a slice of the Western Districts! What a difference a few weeks make. It’s very wet. No driving on paddocks and many areas looking very good. There is a clear difference between early sown and late sown crops, almost a 30cm on cereals. However, with a full profile, I’d imagine a bit of sunshine and everything will take off.

Urea supplies have been problematic from Portland but not so much from Geelong. I understand from the rural merchandise teams that in last 48hrs most areas have access to meaningful volumes now which is great. Further where there have been good rains agronomists are treating smut in barley.

Markets remain weather driven. On one hand, there are a lot of good crops, on the other hand the BOM isn’t painting a great picture for spring. This has resulted in softening prices early in the week, which stabilised later in the week. Consumers are still buying as required but they are looking for cover from September through to November at the moment.

Prices as at 19th July

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 
 
 
 
 

Pictured: Cereal crop looking great north west of Werneth VIC.

 

 

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VIC Market Update – 12/07/2019

Tom Guthrie, General Manager Account Management

1 minute read

Well winter has well and truly set in across Victoria; days are short, cold and we continue to get showers across the cropping belt. Without wanting to sound like a broken record, production prospects continue to improve in Victoria and more broadly across the whole of the southern cropping belt from WA through to Southern NSW. This is not to say we are home and hosed, basis the BOM update yesterday we are far from it! However, as we stand today, crops are in good to excellent condition.

Markets were a little more interesting last week. Looking at old crop, canola is firmer and barley is steady, while wheat is off significantly as nearby demand is well covered. New crop markets were more stable. Wheat was steady while both barley and canola were softer to varying degrees. Grower selling generally remains light in Victoria.

Prices as at 12th July

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

 

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VIC Market Update – 5/07/2019

Tom Guthrie, General Manager Account Management

1 minute read

The Victorian winter cropping belt enjoyed good to excellent rainfall over the weekend with 10mm to 40mm falling across the state. Victorian winter crops are generally now in good to excellent condition as we move towards the half way point of winter.

As is often the case, local grain markets have eased as production outlook improves. This has been most notable in old crop cereals, where trade and consumer buying have pulled back their bids during the first week of July as nearby requirements appear to be satisfied. The other notable move down in price was for new crop wheat, where the premium to the barley market locally and to the export market globally has led to a hard correction week on week.

Pictured: Crops near Deniliquin.

Prices as at 4th July

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

 

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VIC Market Update – 28/06/2019

Tom Guthrie, General Manager Account Management

2 minute read

Old crop cereal markets are firmer week on week as trade buyers come to market to buy back June dated positions. Grower selling remains quite light, however, enquiry is picking up as we edge closer to the new financial year and new crop production prospect continue to improve. Consumer buying is light and out the curve as nearby cover is adequate. Interestingly, Western Australian transhipments continue to cap the delivered Melbourne market price, which in turn is keeping a lid on domestic premiums rallying higher in Victoria on old crop.

New crop cereal markets are steady this week as Victorian values present a significant domestic premium and as such are well over export parity.

As alluded to earlier, production prospects in Victoria continue to improve, although the short cool days have meant we’ve seen a number of frosts over the last week, which really slow the show down.

Prices as at 27th June

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

 

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VIC Market Update – 21/06/2019

James Ryssenbeek, Agfarm Regional Manager VIC

2 minute read

The weather was cooler this week and up to 25mm fell along the coast, but generally less than 10mm in most of Wimmera/Mallee and central cropping areas. I was on the NSW/Vic boarder again this week which was drier than you might think. You can see where storms have passed through, some areas look good, but more rain is required. Those with water will start irrigating soon, which is unfortunately a lot earlier than was hoped or is done historically. It is likely stock feed will be required for many along the border west of Deniliquin for some time until there is rain and warmth.

We’ve received more calls this week for grain marketing, again mostly driven by end of financial year decisions. Most callers are cleaning up the last of their onfarm or warehoused stocks. Not as many sales as calls however, with most sellers looking for around $5/MT over the bid. One crop that Victoria still has in style is lentils. The market is waiting for the $5-600/MT mark to get that moving.

Grain markets both old and new are up slightly, but trade has been thin. There hasn’t been much forward commitment yet although areas around Brim, Warracknabeal and Donald are looking very good at the moment with great in crop rainfall and subsoil moisture. The general consensus is consumers are saying they have ok coverage for now so there is little activity there. However, with some large consumers in NSW and almost no time left for new winter crop plantings that could change.

Cotton picking is basically a wrap now in Vic/southern NSW. Yields have been disappointing at 8-10bales, coupled with high costs this year driven by water and strong falls in markets over the last three months. It’s a tough job to make it work in that space today.

Pictured: Crops looking good in Barnadown VIC

 

Prices as at 21st June

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

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VIC Market Update – 14/06/2019

James Ryssenbeek, Agfarm Regional Manager VIC

1.5 minute read

Good rainfalls again this week for most. With the exception of upper north west corner missing the big falls. Swan Hill, Ouyen, Kerang, Echuca all reported less than 10mm while the central Mallee, the Bendigo area and southern Vic recorded widespread 25+ mm on Wednesday. In these areas there has been enough rain in May/June to justify additional fertiliser applications bolstering lighter applications at sowing. For irrigators however the headwinds remain. May and June rainfalls have been welcomed as a substitute or reduction for pre-watering requirements, but the outlook for spring watering remains in doubt at profitable figures. >$350/MT is often used for cereals as a profit ceiling. There are a lot of irrigation bays sown dry too, which without irrigation water, will struggle to produce on soil types requiring significant water.

Markets remain relatively stable this week across new and old season. There has been some good end of financial year sales enquiries this week and we continue to service livestock farmers. I found most growers this week were looking for $5+ above the bid. “If I’ve held this long, I can probably wait a little longer” has cropped up a few times. New crop sales softened but pricing remained stable with rain finally falling in WA supported by good rain in SA and Vic this week.

Pictured: Cereals looking good near Thyra VIC

 

Prices as at 13th June

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

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