VIC Market Update – 14/06/2019

James Ryssenbeek, Agfarm Regional Manager VIC

1.5 minute read

Good rainfalls again this week for most. With the exception of upper north west corner missing the big falls. Swan Hill, Ouyen, Kerang, Echuca all reported less than 10mm while the central Mallee, the Bendigo area and southern Vic recorded widespread 25+ mm on Wednesday. In these areas there has been enough rain in May/June to justify additional fertiliser applications bolstering lighter applications at sowing. For irrigators however the headwinds remain. May and June rainfalls have been welcomed as a substitute or reduction for pre-watering requirements, but the outlook for spring watering remains in doubt at profitable figures. >$350/MT is often used for cereals as a profit ceiling. There are a lot of irrigation bays sown dry too, which without irrigation water, will struggle to produce on soil types requiring significant water.

Markets remain relatively stable this week across new and old season. There has been some good end of financial year sales enquiries this week and we continue to service livestock farmers. I found most growers this week were looking for $5+ above the bid. “If I’ve held this long, I can probably wait a little longer” has cropped up a few times. New crop sales softened but pricing remained stable with rain finally falling in WA supported by good rain in SA and Vic this week.

Pictured: Cereals looking good near Thyra VIC

 

Prices as at 13th June

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

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VIC Market Update – 07/06/2019

James Ryssenbeek, Agfarm Regional Manager VIC

1.5 minute read

Another good week in Victoria. Rainfall has been widespread through the middle and southern areas. Speaking with two growers around Donald/Brim area and both have had >60mm average across their farms for May and are very happy at the moment. However, there are areas requiring more rainfall. Echuca heading west along the border to Mildura have missed much of May’s rainfall (relative to central and south) and will need more soon. Unfortunately, the rains forecast for this coming week aren’t showing to benefit these areas – but that has been known to be wrong!

Markets are a mixed bag this week. Old season wheat had some big moves, both up and down, while barley has remained relatively stable supported by continued sales to livestock holders. The cooler weather continues to stall pasture growth, so feeding is still required. New crop markets have softened this week in Vic with the run on good rainfall and nice early growing weather.

Interesting fact for you, top export destinations for Victorian wheat in 2018 were; Malaysia 258KMT, Indonesia 203KMT, Vietnam 150KMT, Philippines 115KMT, New Zealand 121KMT and Thailand 102KMT.

Pictured: Freshly sown paddock near Balliang VIC.

 

Prices as at 7th June

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

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VIC Market Update – 31/05/2019

James Ryssenbeek, Agfarm Regional Manager VIC

1.5 minute read

A good week generally for grain growers in Victoria. Some nice rainfalls averaging 15mm through the whole state have helped complete final plantings and pushed earlier plantings along which are almost all up now. I’ve been driving this week through central Victoria to Berrigan, roadside crops of canola and cereals all appear to be well established. The farmers I met with are all spraying for insects at this moment driven by the warm weather and small plants – albeit it would be nice if the wind would calm down! Agfarm have noticed a spike in enquiry from sheep farmers this week, purchasing feed as dropping temps slow pasture growth.

Some good uplift in the markets this week for both old and new crop, particularly barley which continues to edge close to wheat figures. Grower enquiry on new crop is still pretty quiet, with last year still a little fresh in the memory for forward sales at this point. Cold weather and slow pasture growth is prompting hay demand, with low supplies holding prices firm. In the back office, the trade are trying to assess the impact of the North American corn crop where plantings are historically low, with more rainfall forecasted. Then there is the impact of Chinese pork production losses, that are relatively unknown due to unreliable government reporting. Chinese consumers are looking to alternative animal protein sources, putting Australian beef in the spot lights. Looking further afield Europe grain producers are generally having a pretty good go of it. Back home, talk is split between potential price rises as a result of poor rainfalls and plantings in Northern NSW and as yet no Autumn break in Western Australia. The next few weeks should see all these angles come together to shape up markets for the remainder of the year.

Pictured: Cereal crop poking its head through stubble near Balliang, VIC.

 

Prices as at 31st May

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

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VIC Market Update – 24/05/2019

James Ryssenbeek, Agfarm Regional Manager VIC

1.5 minute read

Sowing is coming to a close this week for most and rainfall is now welcome/needed. There has been a lot of weed and insect control over the state, but planting has been a smooth process with the warm weather following the rains a few weeks ago and germination is good.

Cotton crops are also coming off now. Yields are average, which is the effect of a hot December now apparent. High watering requirement and costs have taken the shine off the returns. Forward pricing has dropped significantly on the back of the China/USA trade discussions, with expectations that garment production may be impacted in China. Without significant rainfall in the catchments, access to water at profitable prices is looking difficult, and some are switching to irrigated winter cereals as a replacement for cotton next year.

Corn crops are nearly finished harvesting as well. Yields have been average to good for most, again you can see the impact of the extreme heat. Growers have welcomed the unexpected income from corn stubble hay which I’m told is liked by cattle and sheep alike.

Solid new crop wheat numbers are generating forward sales while old crop sales happen in “as required” spikes. The lack of short-term forecast rainfall is still a factor in the buyers/seller’s mind. Livestock producers are still reluctantly purchasing grain, hoping for grass to grow faster.

Pictured: Spraying in Thyra NSW

 

Prices as at 24th May

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

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VIC Market Update – 17/05/2019

James Ryssenbeek, Agfarm Regional Manager VIC

1.5 minute read

And everything is green again! Sowing progress is at 70% by my reckoning, and grain markets have had a slight rally. An amazing change in only a few weeks.

I was on the road this week travelling from Shepparton through to Mathoura, Cobram and Wagga. While there are still lots of sowing rigs around, the growers we saw were minimum 50% through. Most expect to be finished by the end of next week. Everyone has been very happy with the sowing conditions. Warm weather has promoted good seed germination and there have been basically no interruptions. We did have one client who is re-sowing some canola due to minor crusting, and there are definitely plenty of sprayers going with warm weather and moisture bringing insects out too.

Now the crop is mostly in, rain will be required soon for most. Broadly speaking Victoria had 30-50mm for a lot of the cropping areas in the last four weeks. Perfect for sowing. But now the crop is in, and with a bit of warm weather, more rain will be required soon.

New crop markets are up slightly this week, mostly related to delayed corn planting in the US which has the interest of traders. Old crop is holding steady but there is better engagement this week between sellers/buyers while there is no rain on the immediate horizon. Hay demand remains strong, although there is green pick, there isn’t enough yet to stop additional feeding.

Pictured: Sowing in Dookie Victoria.

 

Prices as at 17th May

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

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VIC Market Update – 10/05/2019

James Ryssenbeek, Agfarm Regional Manager VIC

1.5 minute read

Just add some water and sowing has definitely kicked along. With around 15mm+ in the last week and few interruptions, growers are well into their programs ranging from 50-80% sown. Some canola planting has been cut back, but in my talks, most have stuck with their rotations despite the dry leadup.

North eastern VIC, and 100km around Melbourne picked up 3-9mm of rain in the last 24hrs. However, the main course is predicted to be tonight(Thursday)/tomorrow(Friday) which is forecast to add 5-25mm for most of the state. Last week there were also good falls in our catchments (nothing flowing to rivers yet) with 100mm in the Dartmouth area.

Rain continues to pull back markets. Old and new crop values have fallen sharply again. Wheat continues to lead the downturn off $30/MT week on week, barley ($13/MT down) and canola ($3/MT down) are stable by comparison. There is very little grower trade this week which is to be expected while sowing is in full swing. We are still fielding stockfeed sales.

Cotton picking has started in southern NSW. Yields are looking good with 12 bales per hectare not uncommon. There are already concerns about next year’s crop with lack of water supplies. Corn stubble hay is another new market for producers with prices of $120/bale being quoted.

Prices as at 9th May

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

 

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VIC Market Update – 03/05/2019

James Ryssenbeek, Agfarm Regional Manager VIC

1 minute read

Rain rain…well almost everywhere. Pretty good rains for most of Victoria this week. There were a few holes west of Horsham and some of the southern western dairy country didn’t receive much, but a 15-35mm range would cover the majority. What does it mean? Well depending on your scale and tendencies (ie not inclined to dry sow) those who haven’t made a start will, and those who have, if they received a good amount, will be happy. It also opens up weed management options with moisture and weed growth. Rain has definitely held up the sheep markets also!!

Markets remain quiet, but old crop wheat in particular, has come off significantly post Easter. This is partially due to improved weather, but also consumers are happy not to bid in a softening market. Conversely growers don’t want to sell into a falling market. Old crop sales continue to smaller local consumers, domestic homes and stock feed. Trade buys are sporadic. Some consumers say they have their immediate requirements covered, others are still buying as required. Following this week’s rain and with more potentially next week, both buyers and sellers will likely wait before making more moves.

Prices as at 3rd May

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

 

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VIC Market Update – 18/04/2019

James Ryssenbeek, Agfarm Regional Manager VIC

More farmers have started sowing this week predominately stockfeed; vetch, oats and pasture. Weather continues to make for cautious planning across all forms of agribusiness at the moment, but I did speak with a grower near rainbow who will start lupins this week. There is still plenty of time to get the main grain crops in before the window closes, so fingers crossed the weather is kind between now and then.

Markets remain quiet. Stockfeed sales continue, but as a general comment, old season sales remain very quiet. Sellers want to see if lack of rain will push prices up, and buyers don’t want to push prices just prior to sowing so are buying as required. New season crop values have strengthened slightly over the week although trade has been limited. Most rallies would likely be weather driven at this time.
Happy Easter everyone, may the weather and the chocolate be good to us all!

Prices as at 18th April

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

 

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VIC Market Update – 12/04/2019

James Ryssenbeek, Agfarm Regional Manager VIC

Sowing continues throughout Vic, but most I’ve spoken with won’t start in earnest until later this month. This week I spent some time around Shepperton/Tatura in what is a very diverse cropping, dairy and fruit area. It seems a good amount of pasture for dairy has been sown now. There were a few pivots running and some flood irrigation being applied. A lot of paddocks in the area haven’t had a summer irrigation due to the cost of water. Demand for water is high now to bring them back into production before cooler weather stalls growth. On a positive note, milk prices are rising with competition for supply as production backs off.

I also attended a forum on agri waste this week. Did you know, 45% of horticultural production is lost as waste between production and consumption! Too big or small, wrong colour, bruised…etc. Some very interesting discussions presented by chemists, professors and start-up tech businesses looking to turn production waste and by-products into profit. A lot will happen in this space in coming years!

Grain markets remain quiet. I’ve had a few calls this week from growers checking in with the market, but no sales. We continue to see movements of stockfeed in all states as the weather holds. Some consumers are also taking forward positions for coming months with prolonged dry, but otherwise quiet which is reflected in very stable pricing week on week.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Pictured: Dairy rotary which currently milks 750 cows, taking about 1.5hrs.

 

Prices as at 11th April

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

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VIC Market Update – 05/04/2019

James Ryssenbeek, Agfarm Regional Manager VIC

The quiet before the storm (fingers crossed) this week. I spent parts of this week around Swan Hill, Ouyen and Mildura. Those with subsoil moisture have started sowing sheep feed mainly vetch and oats. The balance are waiting, but it’s early days for cereals or canola. Those pre-watering at the moment won’t be too far off starting. Outside the main broadacre cropping areas, there were some decent rainfalls in eastern Victorian water catchments, (even snow!), and parts of south eastern and western Victoria dairy received up to 30mm.

Old and new markets remain quiet for both sellers and buyers. Small trades continue to local domestic markets and dairies. Hay also continues to move north. Livestock markets kicked this week, with renewed interest in ewes as grass grows further north. This will likely spur some feed grain buying with strong prices per head. If the dry continues in Vic, those who have held grain to this point are understandably thinking there could be a price rise. Time will tell.

Picture: Sowing vetch at Ouyen VIC

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Prices as at 5th April

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

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