WA Market Update – 14/06/2019

Reid Seaby, WA Regional Manager

1.5 minute read

The long awaited break to the season has finally arrived. Really good rains were received by much of the state last week as a couple of weather systems passed over the agricultural regions between Thursday and Monday. Some areas had as much as 100mm over this period but unfortunately, the Esperance zone did miss out, receiving approximately 5-10mm. Esperance did however get off to a better start than a lot of areas with 10-15mm recorded in May when the rest of the state remained dry.

While this rain is a little later than most would have liked, it’s obviously a welcome change and has seen a few more hectares go in (although as a percentage of total area, it will be small). Given the later break we still believe the area sown to wheat will be lower, canola hectares will also be down, while barley and oats acres are likely to increase as a result.

Markets have taken a bit of a breather over the past couple of weeks and as a result, grower selling seems to have slowed. It seems the rain has taken the heat out of the market for now, but it will certainly give farmers greater confidence moving forward due to improved production certainty. APW in Kwinana was a bit higher this week, up $3/MT to $312/MT FIS. Barley bids were a little softer as feed dropped back to $260/MT a tonne and malt fell $5/MT to $285/MT FIS in the Kwinana zone. Red crop bids are now entering the frame with 2020/21 APW multi grades priced around $315/MT in Kwinana.

Prices as at 13th June 2019

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

Follow us on social media

WA Market Update – 07/06/2019

Tom Guthrie, General Manager Account Management

1 minute read

Western Australian grain growers are back on the tractor this week furiously getting the crop in ahead of the front which is due to hit the west over the weekend.

If the rainfall forecast makes it into the gage then a large part of the WA cropping belt would have received a significant drink/break in the season. Albeit it is very late, and we will need a kind winter and spring to see this one home! WA will see more hectares planted once the rainfall is confirmed and the late plant should favour barley and short season wheat varieties.

The positive forecast across Southern Australia, strong cereal production prospects in the northern hemisphere, the US corn crop going backwards, and associated futures volatility has pushed cereal values lower during the week. New crop grower selling has also slowed on this pull back.

WA wheat has become more compelling globally on this move lower, relative to both cash and US futures.

Pictured: This paddock in Mukinbudin WA will very much appreciate the forecast rain.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Prices as at 6th June 2019

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

Follow us on social media

WA Market Update – 31/05/2019

Reid Seaby, Regional Manager WA

2 minute read

Another dry week for Western Australia as planting rains continue to elude the majority of cropping regions. Short term forecasts remain dry but there does appear to be the possibility of a cold front crossing the WA coast next Thursday night; fingers crossed this delivers something of substance.

I no doubt sound like a broken record but the ongoing dry weather is increasing the likelihood of growers cutting their plantings. At this stage you could probably argue Geraldton and Kwinana may be down only 5% on what was expected to go into the ground but fast forward 2 weeks and if we remain in a similar situation then you’d have to think anywhere up to 10 – 15% would be left out. The result of the weather system predicted to come through on June 7 – 9 will likely play a big role in that outcome.

Markets were up sharply again this week as US futures continue their march and dry conditions cause concern locally. Old season wheat prices strengthened, with most grades now being priced around the same level. APW and ASW1 in KWI were $325/MT FIS this week, with ASW1 jumping $29/MT in the last 7 days. Old season feed barley prices are up $15/MT from last week, now at $310/MT FIS Kwinana. New crop values also moved significantly in the right direction with APW1 MG in KWI around $323/MT.

 

Prices as at 31st May 2019

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

Follow us on social media

WA Market Update – 24/05/2019

Reid Seaby, Regional Manager WA

2 minute read

There was a little bit of rain around last week but for those with little to no sub-soil moisture it was of minimal benefit. For the lucky ones with moisture underneath or where crops have germinated, this rain would have been helpful. The better falls were in the south where they received as much as 20mm but anywhere north of the highway wasn’t so lucky and generally had only 1-5mm. Unfortunately, the forecast doesn’t look very positive so it would seem a break in early June is the best we can hope for at this stage.

Average yields are still very much achievable with a June break, but the lack of sub-soil moisture remains a concern for a lot of farmers. If we move into the middle of June without rain, it’s suspected growers will start to drop planned plantings and the reduction in crop area will obviously become more significant the later the season becomes. But I do have some positive news…. I sat with grandad last week studying the rainfall of seasons past and history shows he has managed to grow plenty of good yielding crops after late starts to the season. The stats show we have until June 22nd before it becomes ‘late’.

Despite the good prices, grower selling has been relatively subdued which illustrates current production risk outweighs price. With WA remaining dry, barley prices moved $10/MT higher in the past week which sees old crop back to $295/MT and new crop at $260/MT FIS in Kwinana. Wheat price moves were also positive as Chicago wheat futures received another welcome jump over weather concerns in the US. Both old and new crop APW1 are at $305/MT FIS in Kwinana. Canola bids pushed $6-18/MT higher over the past week.

 

Pictured: Plenty of dust in the eastern Wheatbelt as farmers continue to seed dry.

Prices as at 23rd May 2019

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

Follow us on social media

WA Market Update – 17/05/2019

Reid Seaby, Regional Manager WA

1.5 minute read

There has been little change over the past fortnight and to state the obvious, it’s dry. Nevertheless, growers continue to get the crop in the ground, albeit a little slower than they otherwise would if they were seeding into moisture. For most of the grain growing areas there has been little to no useful rain in the month of May thus far, but everyone has their fingers crossed for a slight reprieve today. It seems likely most of the southern half should get between 1-10mm and although this won’t break the season, it may be enough for some to get a germination and will certainly be beneficial to those crops already out of the ground.

Domestic grain prices have been on the slide over the past couple of weeks with negative influences from global markets and improving crop conditions in eastern Australia. But this week was a little different as we saw a kick in WA bids. Old crop APW1 in Kwinana pushed $10/MT higher to $288/MT and H2 was an impressive $17/MT higher at $302/MT FIS. Barley bids improved slightly, up $3/MT to $285/MT FIS in Kwinana. New crop wheat bids are $14/MT higher this week at $294/MT FIS.

 

Prices as at 16th May 2019

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

Follow us on social media

WA Market Update – 10/05/2019

Tom Guthrie, General Manager Account Management

1.5 minute read

Unfortunately, from a rainfall perspective, most of the state remains dry and there is nothing positive on the extended forecast out until the end of May. The exception over the weekend was the southern region, where some were lucky enough to receive between 2-10mm.

Even with the less than ideal rainfall forecast and lack of soil moisture profile, growers continue to dry sow around the clock across the state, pinning their hopes now on a break during the first half of June, putting the break at least a week behind average.

Wheat and barley values are off significantly week on week as the market resets against the pending bumper northern hemisphere cereal harvest, softer values globally and softer values domestically in Eastern Australia. New crop wheat bids are at export parity and should allow for Western Australian wheat to be competitive in the export pathway to key milling wheat markets in South East Asia.

Pictured: Sowing at Mukinbudin WA

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Prices as at 9th May 2019

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

Follow us on social media

WA Market Update – 3/05/2019

Reid Seaby, Regional Manager WA

1.5 minute read

Farmers have been easing into their seeding programs over the last couple of weeks and are now eagerly awaiting rain as anticipation builds around a low pressure system that will cross the south west of the state on the weekend. Unfortunately, rainfall models are predicting the rain to remain confined to the lower west region and fail to deliver anything of significance to the cropping belt. Falls of around 5–10mm could occur in the surrounding areas of Albany which would encourage these growers to push on with seeding. It appears as though the wheatbelt and mid-west will miss out altogether, meaning farmers in these areas will likely continue slowly planting the crop without being able to achieve a knockdown for the second consecutive season.

Old crop wheat prices have tumbled since this time a fortnight ago. Essentially all wheat grades have fallen $20/MT per tonne or more. APW1 in Kwinana has dropped $21/MT to be bid at $282/MT FIS today and ASW is down a whopping $26/MT to $269/MT. Although the table below would suggest otherwise, new crop wheat has been relatively stable and is unchanged from two weeks ago. Bids literally jumped $20/MT in a day and then came back to where they were trading – I suspect buyers were testing the waters to see whether there was any grower selling on new crop at $300/MT.

 

Prices as at 2nd May 2019

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

Follow us on social media

WA Market Update – 18/04/2019

Reid Seaby, Regional Manager WA

On Friday of last week, GIWA released their first crop report for the 2019 season and the consistencies with what we have been sharing with you over the past month or so were evident. They suggested the intended canola plantings were going to increase 15% year on year but with the lack of rain to date, estimates have been pulled back to be similar to that of last year. Intended barley area is also expected to be similar to last season which highlights any concerns regarding marketing opportunities to China, Japan or South Korea are seemingly being outweighed by rotations and agronomics. GIWA is estimating a total of 8.3 million hectares will be planted in 2019 of which about 55% will be wheat, 20% will be barley, 15% canola and the balance made up of lupins, oats and pulse crops.

Seeding is yet to properly get underway as last weekend’s rain failed to produce anything of significance. There were a few thunderstorms in the north and east which dumped 20 – 40mm over some farms but the areas which did get rain were scarce. After last year, most growers are keen to wait for a break in order to get a knockdown and clean up some weed issues that have resulted from last year’s dry sowing.

Prices were lower again and the losses were across the board. Old crop APW wheat tumbled $11/MT in Kwinana, back to $303/MT FIS. Barley too was softer, but the drop wasn’t as significant with feed ending the week at $288/MT which is down only $2/MT from last week. Canola was unchanged but bids are weak and of no interest to growers. A positive move was however seen in new crop markets with APW1 hitting the magical $300/MT mark which is $20/MT higher than where it was valued seven days ago and $10/MT up from Tuesday. Although a lot of grower’s target sales around this level, it is unlikely to see much engagement given the weather and the time of year.

 

Prices as at 17th April 2019

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

Follow us on social media

WA Market Update – 12/04/2019

Reid Seaby, Regional Manager WA

After a mostly dry week, a trough is forecast to develop on Saturday and will move inland during the day, possibly combining with a cold front that is expected to cross the coast Sunday. If this eventuates, we could expect to see rain through most of the northern and eastern WA wheatbelt over the weekend. It is unlikely to bring enough to provide a ‘break’ to the season and may even push too far northeast to benefit a large population of growers.

As we approach the middle of April the expectation of lower canola plantings remains given widespread early rains have been limited and there is a lack of good subsoil moisture. Some are looking to replace canola hectares with wheat given the uncertainty surrounding barley, but others will focus on the agronomic benefits and retain their barley rotations.

Moves in WA cash markets were reasonably significant over the last week. Wheat and canola were weaker while barley found some support. The lower quality wheat grades may continue to struggle given Black Sea supplies will be coming on to the market and soaking up the South East Asian demand. ASW1 in Kwinana fell away $11/MT after dropping $12/MT the week before and is now bid around $304/MT FIS. Barley bids went the other way with feed jumping $7/MT to $290/MT FIS in Kwinana and malt values climbing to $300/MT FIS.

2019/20 wheat price moves were modest but there is very little activity in new crop markets and that is likely to remain the case until we see a good break to the season.

 

 

Prices as at 11th April 2019

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

Follow us on social media

WA Market Update – 05/04/2019

Reid Seaby, Regional Manager WA

There have been a few rain events this week throughout the cropping belt which has taken a bit more pressure off for some. Although the falls haven’t been game changers by any stretch of the imagination, it is continuing to build the moisture profile as we close in on seeding. With recent rains and on the back of a wet March, seeding has actually started for some farmers in the south of the state. At this early stage most, if not all, hectares have been planted to either oats or canola and it’s pretty safe to assume growers will take advantage of the head start and use these paddocks for grazing. There isn’t much to be excited about on the eight-day forecast but if we get some decent falls beyond that we can expect some activity beginning in most parts of the state.

Old crop wheat numbers were softer again this week with APW1 in Kwinana down $2/MT for the week to $323/MT FIS. Barley suffered a similar fate with feed bids down $2/MT to $283/MT FIS. Malt bids were unchanged but this week’s news update informing growers of a potential decrease in international marketing opportunities for malt barley during the 2019/20 season sent some negative price signals for new crop barley. Whether this news will impact planned rotations remains to be seen but we’d expect agronomic benefits to outweigh price at this stage.

 

 

Prices as at 4th April 2019

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

Follow us on social media