WA Market Update – 16/08/2019

Reid Seaby, WA Regional Manager

1.5 minute read

We’ve seen some good falls over the past couple of days and it couldn’t have come at a better time. There have been a few questions surrounding local production in recent weeks after signs of the weather becoming warmer, increasing the potential for yields and production to deteriorate. But rainfall totals of between 5 – 20mm for the majority of the state has kept things advancing and maintains soil moisture levels. Unfortunately, the rain was a bit variable with some growers luckier than others, particularly around the lakes where there were reports of up to 40mm. Some follow up rain prior to the weekend looks likely and if this favourable trend continues for the next month then average to above average crops are very achievable.

WA grower bids fell away this week following the release of the latest USDA report and the bumper US crop. Given the uncertainty surrounding this year’s production, growers are unlikely to sell too much for the time being, particularly if prices continue to edge lower. Kwinana APW was down $7/MT this week to $313/MT FIS with all other wheat grades falling. Barley bids also fell with feed dropping $5/MT to $276/MT. Canola was effectively unchanged and next season’s APW was down $5/MT, back to $300/MT. Although bids were off this week it’s important to note prices still represent good value and those who have confidence in the season seem happy to slowly but surely chip away with small sales.

Pictured: Crops in Nungarin aren’t distressed but do have a long way to go, hence the need for a soft spring

Prices as at 16th August 2019

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

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WA Market Update – 09/08/2019

Reid Seaby, WA Regional Manager

1.5 minute read

Most cropping regions welcomed showers over the last week, keeping things on track for the time being. Although most areas have adequate moisture for now, growers are seeking a good 20mm event to bolster moisture levels and maintain the crop’s potential. Unfortunately, the forecast for the next two weeks doesn’t look very promising and it doesn’t seem many areas will receive significant falls. This will take us to the latter part of August and moisture will start to be of concern as most crops in the state are only at the 3-4 leaf stage and well behind where they normally are for this time of the year.

A dry couple of weeks across most of WA has also kept growers on the sidelines with their grain marketing. The lack of grower engagement and the firmer tone on the east coast has offered support for WA bids. Weakness in the AUD also added support. Kwinana APW was up $5/MT to $320/MT FIS and ASW values are now pushing $300/MT. Next season’s wheat bids were also higher this week, jumping to $305/MT FIS. Feed barley was much stronger, up $11/MT from last week to $281/MT FIS in Kwinana. Canola has been trading in a tight range for the last few months but has recently popped and is now at $616/MT FIS Kwinana, up $10/MT from last week.

Prices as at 8th August 2019

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

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WA Market Update – 02/08/2019

Reid Seaby, WA Regional Manager

1.5 minute read

WA cropping areas recorded some showers over the past week with 1 – 10mm in the Geraldton zone and 1 – 5mm in the Great Southern and Esperance regions. Falls were lighter in the central parts of the Kwinana zone. Although July was slightly drier than average, crops haven’t suffered because fortunately, they are still sitting on good moisture. However, given the crops are late it means they remain vulnerable to hot and dry weather, making the next month or so critical to production outcomes. Ongoing dryness and warming temperatures through August and September will likely see some yield declines in most areas.

Although markets have been generally moving in the right direction, grower selling remains lean at this point of the season. Local wheat markets were higher as APW1 in Kwinana jumped $5/MT to $315/MT FIS and the spread to ASW1 closed slightly. The malt barley spread on the other hand opened up to $30/MT this week given feed bids dropped $5/MT to $270/MT and malt pushed up to $300/MT FIS Kwinana. Canola bids continue to trade in a tight range.

Prices as at 1st August 2019

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

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WA Market Update – 26/07/2019

Reid Seaby, WA Regional Manager

1.5 minute read

Not much has changed over the last week as crops in WA continue to become established after the slow start. Although the growth is behind normal, crops still have ample moisture and there is no great urgency for more rain at this stage. As we near the end of July the general consensus is a good rain in August will maintain the rage and a 20mm+ event in September will be required to assist grain fill and enable the crops to meet their potential. Production prospects do remain on a knife’s edge however and final yields will be heavily influenced by the spring. With the BOM forecasting an even chance of average rainfall during August – October we are likely to see some variability within regions, depending on if, where and when the rain falls.

Very little has changed fundamentally within grain markets and as a result, there has been limited grower selling the past week. The Black Sea region is coming to the end of their harvest and while there was some speculation the dry end to their season may impact production, there are now reports showing both production and quality have in fact increased. Despite this, bids in WA were well supported this week. 2019/20 wheat bids were up about $10/MT with APW1 landing at $310/MT FIS in Kwinana. Barley bids were also higher with feed up $16/MT to $275/MT FIS. Canola bids jumped back over $600/MT to $605/MT FIS Kwinana.

Prices as at 25th July 2019

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

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WA Market Update – 19/07/2019

Reid Seaby, WA Regional Manager

1.5 minute read

A sunny week across WA has accelerated plant growth rates and enabled growers to get on to paddocks and apply herbicides and additional nitrogen. For the most part, crops are in very good condition, albeit later than average. The later start should however mean crops are flowering outside of the frost window. In addition to this, soil moisture is very good across the state, so everything considered, things are pretty positive for the time being.

Although crop conditions are good now, we certainly recognise it is only early in the season and there are plenty of risks ahead. Although moisture isn’t a limiting factor at the moment, we will be heavily reliant on a kind spring with low temperatures and average to above average rainfall. This will be even more critical around the eastern Albany and western Esperance zone which experienced a drier June than everywhere else.

The markets were pretty quiet this week and a little mixed. The July USDA report was ‘bullish’ wheat, but it ultimately showed there will be sufficient stocks to meet demand, hence the resulting flat tone. Wheat bids in Kwinana were slightly higher as accumulators seek to find a price where growers will engage again. APW1 was up $5/MT to $300/MT FIS. Feed barley was essentially unchanged at $259/MT in Kwinana, but malt values fell away slightly to $285/MT FIS. No news with canola again as it continues to sit around $600/MT FIS in Kwinana.

Pictured: Crops progressing nicely as they soak up the sun

Prices as at 18th July 2019

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

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WA Market Update – 12/07/2019

Reid Seaby, WA Regional Manager

1.5 minute read

More rain at the end of last week kept rainfall tallies ticking over, further bolstering crop prospects and adding to the already better than average moisture profile. The front brought falls of up to 50mm, with the northern and eastern wheatbelt faring the best. Thankfully the western parts of the Albany zone and eastern parts of the Esperance zone, who have missed out on much of the recent rain, had falls of around 20mm. These areas do however have little stored soil moisture so will rely on consistent rain moving forward to achieve average to above average yields.

Conditions are excellent in most of the state’s cropping areas and some coastal parts are bordering on too wet, so the fine weather forecast for the next week or so will be a welcome change. Growers are taking advantage of the sunshine and are now busy applying nitrogen and their first round of post emergent sprays.

Markets were generally a little softer this week with the catalysts being the easing crop concerns in WA, SA, Vic and the softer tone in US markets. Both canola and barley bids are unchanged from this time last week, but wheat has come off a little bit. APW1 bids in Kwinana fell below $300/MT this week, down $6/MT to $295/MT. Other grades were also lower but red crop APW1 was steady at $290/MT FIS in Kwinana.

Pictured: Soils are wet and crops are progressing well in WA

Prices as at 11th July 2019

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

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WA Market Update – 05/07/2019

Reid Seaby, WA Regional Manager

1.5 minute read

Following above average rainfall across the majority of WA for the month of June, soil moisture levels have been dramatically bolstered and are now at a stage where growers can be confident at this point of the season. We are still sitting three to four weeks behind normal but good moisture levels will be key for WA grain production from here on in.

As I write (Thursday), a strong cold front is crossing the coast and looks as if it will be dumping another 10 – 25mm across most of the state’s grain growing areas. This will again be very welcomed by most but may actually cause some areas closer to the coast to become a little too wet and could make it difficult to get on to paddocks. An unexpected problem given the small amount of rain prior to June.

WA wheat, barley and canola prices all moved lower this week. Although growers have been buoyed by the recent wet weather, softer grain prices are keeping them on the sidelines for the time being. APW in Kwinana was substantially lower, down $14/MT to $301/MT FIS, whereas the decreases weren’t as significant for other grades. Feed barley was $7/MT lower but malt remained unchanged. Canola too was essentially unchanged, settling at $600/MT in Kwinana. Red crop wheat prices also fell as APW bids dropped to $290/MT in the Kwinana zone.

Prices as at 4th July 2019

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

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WA Market Update – 28/06/2019

Reid Seaby, WA Regional Manager

1.5 minute read

To state the obvious, things have turned around dramatically for WA in the last fortnight. We’ve now had three good rainfall events in June resulting in 30-100mm across the state. Although it’s been a late start for WA farmers, the recent weather has seen seeding wrap up and the large majority of crops have now germinated. The earlier sown crops in areas lucky enough to have May rain have benefited greatly from a wet June and are advancing well.

Although prices have softened a little since the start of the month, the rains have increased grower confidence to take advantage of the strong bids available. Grower selling has been steady, but both wheat and barley bids seem to be trading slightly below targeted levels.

This week’s bullish factor was the lower than expected Canadian wheat plantings, but good Black Sea and EU harvest progress and better weather in the US corn belt weighed on the market. Despite favourable weather for corn crops, feed barley bids in Kwinana pushed $4/MT higher to be $266/MT FIS. APW1 bids were also up slightly this week to $315/MT FIS in Kwinana but other wheat grades were softer. Canola was essentially unchanged and remains just over the $600/MT per tonne mark in Kwinana. Red crop wheat was down $6/MT this week.

Pictured: Farmers are grateful for the familiar green tinge that has developed after the recent rains.

Prices as at 27th June 2019

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

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WA Market Update – 21/06/2019

Reid Seaby, WA Regional Manager

1.5 minute read

Moisture profiles have been bolstered over the past fortnight with good rains received last week. The promising forecast for the weekend ahead should see things improve further. This weekend’s front appears as though it may favour northern areas again so some south-eastern parts (Esperance region) may not receive as much. The good news is, the majority of cropping regions are expected to receive between 10 – 30mm and another top-up looks to be coming again in the middle of next week.

The recent rains ensured intended barley and wheat area has been planted across the state. However, it came too late for any more canola to go in, so it has left the trade trying to figure out how much canola was dropped off from the original plan. One thing we can be sure of, canola production will be lower than last year.

Bids remain strong despite the beginning of harvest in the US and the widespread rain we’ve received in the west. Early yields have been better than expected through Texas and Oklahoma and, despite the excessive rain, no sprouting damage has been reported so far. Wheat bids were a little inconsistent this week with spreads adjusting slightly as H2 came off and ASW improved. APW remains at $312/MT FIS in Kwinana. Barley was essentially unchanged, but canola was the best of the commodities, up $11/MT for the week at $603/MT FIS for CAN1 in Kwinana.

Prices as at 20th June 2019

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

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WA Market Update – 14/06/2019

Reid Seaby, WA Regional Manager

1.5 minute read

The long awaited break to the season has finally arrived. Really good rains were received by much of the state last week as a couple of weather systems passed over the agricultural regions between Thursday and Monday. Some areas had as much as 100mm over this period but unfortunately, the Esperance zone did miss out, receiving approximately 5-10mm. Esperance did however get off to a better start than a lot of areas with 10-15mm recorded in May when the rest of the state remained dry.

While this rain is a little later than most would have liked, it’s obviously a welcome change and has seen a few more hectares go in (although as a percentage of total area, it will be small). Given the later break we still believe the area sown to wheat will be lower, canola hectares will also be down, while barley and oats acres are likely to increase as a result.

Markets have taken a bit of a breather over the past couple of weeks and as a result, grower selling seems to have slowed. It seems the rain has taken the heat out of the market for now, but it will certainly give farmers greater confidence moving forward due to improved production certainty. APW in Kwinana was a bit higher this week, up $3/MT to $312/MT FIS. Barley bids were a little softer as feed dropped back to $260/MT a tonne and malt fell $5/MT to $285/MT FIS in the Kwinana zone. Red crop bids are now entering the frame with 2020/21 APW multi grades priced around $315/MT in Kwinana.

Prices as at 13th June 2019

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

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