Alistair Murphy, Agfarm Account Manager CNSW
Values have once again firmed this week, following the continuing upside we have seen on the international market. Feed grains have been the biggest movers, having seen an increase in prices anywhere between $6-8/MT depending on location and quality. We have seen a noticeable uptake in grower selling in Central NSW, as recent upside has hit levels which growers feel more comfortable in letting further stock go. Yet by no means is the grower frantically letting tonnes fly out the door. However, that said, it’s still good to see some form of liquidity in a market that has been relatively inactive in over the last two months.
Exfarm feed wheat values finally have interestingly started to be bid and trade at a premium to barley. I suspect that with the recent surge in sorghum pricing and with barley remaining hard to buy, interest has now transitioned across to wheat more aggressively than we had seen in the last few months. We saw some wheat trade ex-farm Central West NSW at a premium of about $5/MT to barley, though this was in a more western area which operates with a different freight spread. The further east you travel to the closer the wheat-barley spread is, given the proximity to the Liverpool Plains feeder market.
Canola values have started to do some work to the upside, and not all of the movement is due to the international market either. Basis is starting to creep into canola pricing at present, as domestic values increase in order to attract some type of liquidity in this market. Although, we are still seeing very little in the way of selling on this front as there simply isn’t a lot of canola left to market here in the Central West.
Early sorghum harvest in the north has kicked off and are seeing some decent amounts of liquidity in Southern Queensland as tonnes start to hit the bin. With the recent round of selling, we did see bids come under some pressure towards the end of the week with prices coming off about $8/MT by Friday. It will be interesting to see what influence sorghum liquidity has over the wheat and barley markets. I expect there will be limited upside potential in the coarse grain market whilst harvest liquidity ticks over, and depending on how much is traded, could potentially see a short term lull in F1 / SFW1 markets whilst buyers focus on the summer crop.
Prices as at 16th Feb 2018