Alistair Murphy, Agfarm Account Manager CNSW
Growers in Northern NSW have been relatively inactive on the sell front this week, as markets haven’t really moved too much in either direction to cause any major shift in seller sentiment. Friday night’s USDA release saw international values come under pressure into this week, but domestic values have continued to track within a tight range given selling interest is hard to come by. We are starting to see Central NSW onfarm barley bid at a premium to wheat in some instances, which is an indicator to how hard it is to buy feed barley onfarm. Very rarely do we see feed barley values ever exceed feed wheat values, and it’s a result of buyers needing to pay up to attain last minute coverage and fill prompt domestic requirements.
Despite Australia’s tight domestic balance sheet for canola this year, we continue to see softness in the oilseeds market. It seems as though the domestic market sufficient coverage for now, and with the domestic market now feeling comfortable we expect to track more in line with international market movements. From an international perspective, oilseeds have been coming under pricing pressure in the last few weeks after global oilseed production was revised up in last week’s USDA report. We expect domestic values to continue this international futures correlation until levels of domestic coverage are somewhat consumed, and once owned stocks become tight again we could potentially see stronger basis start to emerge.
Chick pea prices have firmed again this week, up roughly $50/MT. We saw chick pea values bottom out at around the $550/MT delivered Central NSW packer level last week. With the recent upside, we currently see values hovering around the $600/MT mark. Traditionally this time of year we do sometimes see a lull in buyer demand for chick peas due to the sub-continent harvest traditionally kicking off in February. India’s harvest yields over the next few months will have a massive bearing on where our market goes from here. At this stage, we are hearing excellent yields are expected, but when it comes to pulses sometimes what we hear and what is actually the case can be two totally different scenarios.
Prices as at Friday 19th January 2018