Alistair Murphy, Agfarm Account Manager CNSW
Markets firmed over $10/MT for most cereal grains this week,but finished about $5/MT higher week on week across the board since predictions look promising for some much need rain throughout SA, VIC, NNSW and SQLD. At this stage some weather models are suggesting we could very well receive anywhere between 25-50 mm over much of drought affected Northern NSW and Southern QLD. Unfortunately, this will be too little too late to improve 2018 winter crop prospects in Newcastle and Brisbane zones as most crops are now too far gone. It will however give the graziers a much needed reprieve, as 50mm will go a long way in generating some type of forage growth in paddocks which pretty much have been grazed bare. Two inches will also give us a start to improving the soil profile prior to the summer cropping window opening, although we would still need at least another two inches in follow up rains before we start getting too carried away with optimistic summer predictions.
The farm to farm premium drought feed trade market has taken a slight breather this week, with the onset of the predicted rain. But it is still paying noticeable premium over traditional markets as most graziers will still need to supplement stock for two to four weeks after this rain event to give paddocks a chance to regenerate.
Traditionally Australia’s sorghum crop can vary between 1.2MMT and 2.5MMT. With such a substantial amount of fallow country available, if we were to receive another good rain after this predicted event we could very well see the largest ever Australian sorghum crop go in the ground. It’s still early days to be making too many bold predictions, although if we were to receive the ideal rain to setup a monster summer plant, the next question would be, ‘do we have enough seed to meet the sowing demand?’.
Time will tell.
Prices as at 23rd August