Kate Phillips, Agfarm Account Manager SA
This week South Australia finally feels like winter with cold temperatures and morning frosts. The upcoming eight-day forecast doesn’t look particularly promising with regard to continuing rains for the state, but the expected falls of 1-5mm will still add to the rising positivity for the season.
In areas crops have germinated they are establishing well and the warmer day time temperatures have certainly assisted this. Now the colder days are here, this should slow to some degree.
There have been some farmers decided to go in late with crops, making the decision ‘they may as well have a go’. It will be interesting to see how these crops progress, but if commodity prices stay stable or find upside then any additional tonnes may well be worth taking the chance.
The week has brought a softening in the majority of commodities in both track and delivered markets. Bids are back $2-4/MT with the exception of new seasons canola which has remained stable week on week at $525-526/MT.
In delivered markets, higher protein wheat remained stable with H1 at $333/MT and H2 at $315/MT delivered Adelaide for July/August delivery. ASW1/SFW1 delivered to eastern South Australian regions weakened from $310/MT to $307/MT, whereas northern Adelaide markets held firm at $312/MT. Barley and canola delivered markets are a touch more difficult to monitor with low volumes trading throughout the state.
We haven’t seen a significant change in narrative for 2017/18 cereal markets. As South Australian unsold stocks become tighter and demand from deficit regions remains unchanged, we should see relatively stable price in old crop cash markets. Potential for further wheat and barley market downside would come from maintained rain throughout deficit regions over the next few weeks. Weather forecast for these regions however, indicate drier and warmer conditions from July-September this year.
Prices as at 28th June 2018.