SNSW Market Update 05/04/2019

Matthew Noonan, Agfarm Account Manager

Mother nature is definitely testing us a little. Last week’s rain predictions did bring some relief, but not as much as hoped. Eastern areas received over 20mm’s. Western areas weren’t as lucky as showers became quite patchy. Sowing programs have started around southern NSW with mostly oats and long season wheats going in for hungry livestock. The forecast for the backend of April is not overly exciting, there is a weather event building in the north west of WA. Hopefully this tracks in a south easterly direction…

Wheat markets have dipped slightly which is normal after a weather event. The dreaded Easter/ANZAC squeeze for access and limited delivery days will start to present logistics issues in the coming weeks. Griffith market zone is bid at around $390-395/MT, while offers would still be working above $400/MT. Young is looking for $10-15/MT over Griffith. New crop levels have also dipped after the rain, now priced at around $340-345/MT which is slightly softer. If April remains dry this will push higher later this month. ASX wheat for 2020 remains around the $320-330/MT mark.

Barley has become the sound of a broken record… ‘demand is limited to a few large homes while graziers remain the main buyers at solid levels’. Spreads in southern NSW and central west have closed up significantly over the past month as wheat has softened gradually and barley has held. Market zone’s like Griffith are between a $5-15/MT spread while into the Darling Downs QLD or Melb/Geel it’s still $20-30/MT below wheat. A lack of competitiveness globally is affecting WA, making east coast ports the most attractive place to send barley and wheat at present.

Old crop canola seems to be stuck in a $5-10/MT trading range with Melbourne around $580-590/MT and up country homes at similar levels. Historically, current pricing levels present good value but caution is suggested on forward physical sales. There will be plenty of volatility in oilseed values this season with Canada looking to reduce acres planted due to export ban to China on canola from a few of their trading houses and the continuing US/China trading scenario.

 
 

Prices as at 4th April

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

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