Matthew Noonan, Agfarm Account Manager
2.5 minute read
We are definitely right in the middle of weather markets both locally and internationally with local markets dropping around $5-10/MT or more over the last week on the back of forecast rainfall across much of the WA cropping belt and also further rain forecast for SA, VIC and southern NSW. There are no real major falls predicted, but anything above 5mm’s will keep a lot of these regions ticking along nicely for now. There is still a reasonable amount of area in the central and northern parts of NSW that remain dry and will need some drastic change shortly to assist either crops already in the ground or the potential of more plantings. Overseas continues to bring a little uncertainty, mostly from corn in the US with a delay in plantings. Wheat has been following suit in markets but overall should not be too bad with the Black Sea and Europe looking at reasonable crop sizes this year.
The run up in wheat markets was relatively short lived with most domestic markets on the east coast back $5-10/MT or more week on week due to the current forecast weather events on both the west and east coasts. This will likely play out for old crop over the coming months with any extended dry outlook likely to increase values while weather events will pressure prices to the down side. Griffith market zone started the week out at around the $400-405/MT mark but by the end was seeing a lack of demand (bid side) and offers chasing the market down to around $390/MT delivered Griffith. Young market zone is still at a small premium to Griffith. New crop values have also slid over the past week down around $10-20/MT at $345-350/MT Port Kembla track which is still in the top 5-10% of historical prices.
Barley is slow going on the demand side. Some grazing demand over the last month has crept into the market as weather has turned cold limiting pasture and/or grazing crop growth. This may continue for the next one to two months especially with lamb prices heading well north of $8.00/kg in recent weeks. I would suggest if you are holding old crop stock and able to sell at levels around or above $400/MT exfarm to continue to do so. New crop has increased slightly closing the gap/spread between wheat at $285-290/MT Port Kembla track.
Oilseeds remain well supported locally with limited liquidity and possible reduction in planted acres across the whole country meaning new crop supply, even if close to average yields are achieved, should still be tight on supply for next year.
Prices as at 7th June
* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.