Matthew Noonan, Agfarm Account Manager SNSW
I hope everyone had a good and safe Christmas and New Year period. It was definitely a typical Southern NSW one with most days soaring up around the high 30oC and into the low 40oC most days. From a few trips around the area in last few weeks you can see the moisture received during the October, November and December rains has definitely dried off again, which will help any blocks sprayed due to summer weeds and efforts to conserve moisture for the coming season.
Wheat enters the New Year at similar levels prior to Christmas and we suspect it will push sideways up and down a few dollars for the coming weeks. Major demand points of Griffith and Young for SFW1/ASW1 wheat will continue to determine where this market goes as there will be shorts from time to time allowing premiums above the current market of $440-445/MT delivered Griffith and Young. The track market is relatively unchanged and through most sites the spread between AGP1/SFW1 up to H2 is not a lot. In most cases around $2-5/MT and at most $10/MT. There has been a bit of liquidity in markets coming from Victorian growers selling as they complete harvest towards the back end of this week.
Barley saw minimal change over the holiday period with demand still slow and limited to 3-6 major consumers through Southern NSW and the South West Slopes. If we were to see the grazier switch on their appetite for barley to feed cattle and lambs/ewes, you may see prices bump up. For the immediate future barley markets may be dictated by the feed wheat markets as it keeps a $30-45/MT spread under wheat, but at some point demand will appear and possibly break through this level as we move through the year. If looking for options, pricing is around $400-405/MT delivered into Western Riverina homes and similar in the east of Southern NSW heading towards the South West Slopes.
Canola is still in its post-harvest slumber. Pricing levels in Port Kembla have not changed much and still pricing around the $625-630/MT Port Kembla track level. As suspected, most crushers have brought back their Jan/Feb delivered numbers now harvest has finished and the need to attract tonnes direct into the plant are just not there. As per previous reports, to get a premium above current pricing levels it will be a matter of asking the question on the right day.
Prices as at 10th January
* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.