Matthew Noonan, Account Manager Southern NSW
2.5 minute read
Falls over last weekend were on the mark for most areas with 5-10mm’s recorded in the majority of locations through southern NSW. Some of this even reached the northern areas of the Port Kembla zone. This amounts to keeping the top layer somewhat wet in a lot of locations but sub-soil moisture will eventually come into play as September and October will determine how these crops finish.
Wheat markets are similar week on week with small up and down movements day to day. The Griffith market zone has been bid around $355-360/MT for August and September with a gap of $5-10/MT still present between the offers. Some sales are going through on the lower end of this spread. There may be small shorts over the next few months but overall, the old crop market will fluctuate in-line with the new crop hopes and not necessarily just look in our own back yard for pricing signals. Port Kembla track 2019/20 APW1 MG has softened week on week with the USDA WASDE report dropping futures early this week. We’re now sitting at around $360-365/MT week on week which still provides a level to reduce price risk heading into harvest, but for many in southern NSW, more time needs to pass by in this crop’s life for sales to begin.
Barley is still lacking demand overall, but with the current spread to wheat on new crop this may not be the case heading into 2020. It looks as though there is more unsold wheat than barley onfarm through much of NSW, so going into harvest we will be ultra-low on barley carry in stocks. This could keep prices firm through NSW, but with a likely bigger crop year on year, VIC/SA looking at large supplies coming online and not much of an export market for Australian barley, prices could come under pressure as we get into harvest.
New season canola crops around southern NSW are starting to flower and are looking rather good. Some finishing rain to fill pods could mean we have a comfortable supply year for crushers and consumers. However, it will only be just enough overall as carry in stocks will be low. It’s expected prices will hold until harvest, what happens then will be determined by crop yields and size as we head south.
Pictured: Wheat and canola crops in Murrami NSW.
Prices as at 15th August
* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.