Matthew Noonan, Agfarm Account Manager
2.5 minute read
The last week has given farmers a clean run at planting with not much rainfall around. By the end of next week, most cropland south of the Murrumbidgee will be in the ground. North of the Murrumbidgee through Port Kembla zone are still looking for further planting rainfall to get the crops up and out of the ground. It is in the northern half of this zone the window for planting into moisture is fast closing and could have effects on germination going forward. We should be seeing another front on Monday/Tuesday next week but at this stage most forecasters don’t have much in it.
Most wheat markets have halted their recent slide, with Griffith market zone up roughly $3-5/MT week on week to around $350-355/MT for a May delivery. Most wheat south of the Murrumbidgee has had an average to above average start to the season with germination good. 50-100km’s above this line heading north, the opposite could be said with average to below average conditions prevailing over past four to six weeks. New crop prices have dropped significantly since the start of April but has bounced back $3-5/MT the past few days as CBOT has risen and local rainfall forecasts haven’t been ideal.
Barley markets have held ground over the past few weeks with a possible slight decline following wheat. The old crop Port Kembla track market is around $365-370/MT. There continues to be smalls sold into the livestock feeding market and barley continues to suffer a demand issue into larger feed homes competing with wheat and sorghum for a portion of the ration. Any increases on barley will be subject to how wheat fairs in the short to medium term. New crop barley has remained steady week on week as forecasts remain dry in the short term (7-14 days). Hectares may swing towards barley in the north as planting rains continue to evade us.
It is hard to see if much canola has dropped out of the rotation this year but should become clearer over the coming weeks as it emerges. Again, south of the Murrumbidgee planted hectares may be close to normal but the further north you head some hectares are reduced year on year. It will now come down to what goes in and how much it yields. If we see close to average yields, supply may be sufficient for east coast crushers but should they dip at any stage, prices may increase. For now, old crop prices remain solid at around $595-600/MT Port Kembla track while new crop has remained steady to up $1-5/MT with some buyers ranging around $580-590/MT. Historically this presents good pricing opportunities.
Pictured: Sunrise at Coolamon NSW
Prices as at 16th May
* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.