SNSW Market Update 18/04/2019

Matthew Noonan, Agfarm Account Manager

Wishing everyone a happy and safe Easter…and some rain. Markets remain steady to slightly softer with action limited. The livestock feeding market continues to be where the odd premium is popping up, but it is not in large volumes compared to May-Aug last year. Plenty of people are doing the sums at this stage to see if it’s worthwhile feeding or sending stock to market. The problem is sheep/cattle prices aren’t jumping to levels to make this decision easy at present.

Further softness came into wheat markets over the last few days with CBOT dropping 14c/bu in one session a few days ago. As much as this shouldn’t affect our pricing, it does play on the mind of the market as a whole. It’s widely assumed most consumers/traders are sorted for April (Easter) logistically now and will check back in post Anzac Day, hoping we have received some rain by then to kick start 2019 swing. Griffith market zone has ranged around $375-385/MT delivered May range on bid side with offers close to $390-400/MT. I would suggest there has been some selling over last few weeks for late April to early May delivery so trucks can get rolling and pick up fertiliser for sowing and also create a little cashflow. New crop however is playing to the weather tune with nearby forecasts not showing much promise lifting values in Port Kembla track APW1 multigrade by $5-10/MT week on week, now at $350-355/MT.

Old crop barley in the track system remains rather subdued but it is trading exfarm/delivered around the Riverina, mostly grower to grower trades for livestock feeding purposes from $390-400/MT and higher. If you’re getting $400/MT plus exfarm, this would be a continued sell as at that value, it closes up the spread wheat has had over the past three to four months to nearly nothing. Like wheat on the 2019/20 pricing barley is up closer to $15/MT across most southern NSW and central west sites now ranging around $280-290/MT Port Kembla track which makes the spread from ASW1 around minus $45/MT. This is still a little too big a spread to look at barley before wheat, but it has closed the gap. A spread closer to $30-35/MT would make barley more competitive versus wheat, but with the China barley probe in place for the foreseeable future, current spreads may be ok going forward.

Without sounding like a broken record, canola prices on old crop are steady again with hardly any change all week. If anything, the track market is a little softer while delivered markets have again worked back and forth in a tight $5/MT range with nearly all crushing plants around $575-590/MT delivered. New crop, as expected, has crept higher off the back of a slow start to sowing and is currently around $565-579/MT Port Kembla track level.

Prices as at 17th April

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.


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