SNSW Market Update 2/11/2018

Matthew Noonan, Agfarm Account Manager SNSW

Harvest momentum is steadily building across Southern NSW, with barley having started in most areas and wheat looking to start hitting bins in the latter half of November. While most of the canola in the area is still standing, windrowing should start in the next 5-10 days and we should see headers into it by the end of November.

So far the weather has been fine, with some hot days towards the end of this week hitting the high 30’s. There is a change due early next week, which may bring a few days break depending on how much rain we receive.

As no substantial tonnes have really started coming off yet in Southern NSW, it’s hard for the market to gauge grower intentions/activity, which has resulted in markets sitting in a bit of a holding pattern while they try and find some direction from the grower. However, with wheat at around $400/MT plus at a site level in most locales, current selling opportunities are looking quite good, and it may well be a case of the first sale being the best this season, especially if we see a reasonable amount of grower selling as harvest progresses. Based on APW1 pricing, spreads are looking quite varied, with APH2 around +$15-20/MT, H2 +$10/MT and ASW1/AGP1 is around -$10 under.

Barley is also in a state of flux, with prices dipping this week around $5-10. However, with the current lack of liquidity in the market, prices should hold reasonably well for the time being. Supply-wise, the barley landscape will still be tight post-harvest, but the biggest challenge will be demand going forward, with a lot of the bigger consumers increasing the wheat portion of their rations while also looking closely at sorghum as an alternative, depending on spreads.

Canola markets have lost some of the momentum that we saw throughout the middle of October and have settled back to around $660/MT PKE Track. There have been some old crop canola sales over the last few weeks as growers get ready to bring in the new crop. Similarly to barley, new crop supply is looking quite low but a similar pricing scenario may encourage sales at harvest, rather than pushing growers into playing the long game and letting warehousing and interest costs mount up.

 
 
 

Prices as at 1st November

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

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