Matthew Noonan, Agfarm Account Manager
2.5 minute read
It’s been steady across the board this week with no more follow up rain bar maybe 1-2mm’s in southern locations early in the week. Markets both old and new crop are mostly unchanged to maybe slightly firmer. The recent run-up on old crop values has presented selling opportunities for some while the next few months fortunes in southern NSW, Central West, the Riverina and South West Slopes will be determined by local weather as well as pricing structures in the south and west.
Wheat markets have been working a pretty narrow range, starting the week off a little firmer before softening slightly from overseas movements. Local prices are seeing some resistance around the $400/MT delivered Griffith market zone (+/- $5/mt). The next three to four months will be about managing price risk for both consumers and growers (obviously for opposite reasons) with new crop values into domestic markets at a $70-80/MT discount to old crop. New crop, depending on weather in the north or south of Port Kembla zone has been at $350-364/MT Port Kembla track.
Old crop barley is currently priced around evens to wheat, so the main target at present is graziers and consumers requiring some cover. Free on truck F1 prices around the Port Kembla zone have been around the $380-390/MT level. As long as southern NSW keeps looking good, the NSW barley crop should double year on year and this is slightly represented in the current new crop spread from wheat with ASW1 Port Kembla track priced at $325-330/MT while barley is at $295-300/MT leaving us at a $-25/MT to $-35/MT spread. Historically, this (or larger) may increase barley into the ration for some consumers. If it closes up towards wheat values, it’s expected the current limited demand into 2020 will continue.
Canola has firmed on both old and new crop this week with Port Kembla track ranging from a $604-617/MT for old crop and $600-610/MT for new crop.
Driving around north of Wagga Wagga there does seem to be less acres in, and crops west of Newell in the northern portion of Port Kembla zone will likely at this stage be under pressure moisture wise. As long as what is in the ground through SNSW, VIC and SA can achieve somewhere near average yields then supply to consumers/crushers should be sufficient. Unlike cereals, it’s unlikely coastal crushers will be able to bring in WA canola at this stage, as the spread is just not there to execute, so demand will be good for local oilseeds.
Pictured: Misty mornings at Coolamon
Prices as at 21st June
* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.