Matthew Noonan, Agfarm Account Manager
2.5 minute read
Planting has continued over the past week through much of southern NSW. Most farmers south of the Murrumbidgee will be finished now and starting on pre-emergence sprays. In the north of Port Kembla zone there are still some acres to be planted with a few waiting for another change to come through and provide some moisture to sow into. Overall, two thirds of southern NSW would be in the ground and fairing ok at this stage. But with mild conditions over the past month, further rains are needed to keep crops ticking along.
The current short-term forecast (next two to three weeks) showing little rain has kept some firmness under old and new crop wheat markets alike. Griffith market zone has started to march higher. In some instances, being bid close to $370/MT June delivery with offers higher than this of late. This current rally provides opportunities for those holding old crop stocks onfarm to chip away and regain some of the recent loss in market value. As for new crop, at this stage non-physical marketing options might be better utilised, but as far as new crop market goes, Port Kembla it is ranging around $335-345/MT track, which is at a discount to old crop but only by $35-40/MT.
Small livestock demand continues for barley with over the fence (grower to grower) deals happening around the $400/MT exfarm mark throughout much of southern NSW. It is hard to shift large parcels at these premiums. Bids on the track market for old crop are still steady at around $370/MT Port Kembla track (+/-$5). There will likely be more acres of barley around if reports of planting hold true through much of Australia. So, anything near average to slightly below will mean a reasonably large Australian barley crop. This and current China issues keeps a cap on new crop pricing at $275-280/MT Port Kembla track with roughly a $85-90/MT discount to old crop. Prices at around $230-240/MT site might prove reasonable if the Australian barley crop as a whole is over 9MMT.
Old crop canola markets are slightly firmer week on week with Port Kembla track now above $600/MT again and ranging up to $607/MT in some sites. This is likely a result of lower plantings compared to the last few seasons which, unless we get above average yields come harvest, will likely cause stocks to be very tight on the east coast once new crop comes online. 2019/20 pricing is also up ranging between $580-595/MT track, but this is definitely a sit on the sidelines until you are super confident in your production for this year coming.
Pictured: cereal crops at Coolamon (left) and Galore (right)
Prices as at 24th May
* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.