SNSW Market Update 26/07/2019

Matthew Noonan, Account Manager Southern NSW

3 minute read

Crop conditions in the Southern third of NSW are looking good and fingers crossed they can maintain their current potential. The current fortnight’s forecast isn’t overly positive at a time when we will start to see temperatures possibly warm up and crops advance further drawing on moisture reserves. There is cautious optimism around how good things are looking at the moment, but many are commenting that moisture levels in the majority of areas isn’t full. So, to maintain a decent season we need to get at least 60-100% of our average monthly rainfall over August, September and October.

Old crop wheat values have levelled out after the recent dip. There are still some sellers out there with supplies mostly onfarm. The increased activity looks to have been the cause of a drop in values. Consumers took more cover during this time and we could be looking at one (maybe two) more opportunities where gaps might exist in demand between now and new crop. One positive for pricing on both old and new crop, is with the recent lighter rainfall totals and a dry forecast for the next two to three weeks, southern NSW crops are at a cross roads with regards to production, putting some heat under new crop bids. Port Kembla track is now sitting closer to $360/MT or above.

There is limited change on the barley front. We’re still seeing light demand causing values over the past few weeks to fall away. New crop is working similar to wheat in that it’s firmed up to around $295-300/MT, this is also likely from the current forecast and lack of liquidity. The main hope for barley into 2020 is that if it maintains its spread of $30-40/MT under feed wheat values it will wrestle back some demand throughout the east coast.

As per previous reports, old crop canola is done from the consumers point of view with a lack of demand and current better prospects on new crop condition through much of VIC and southern NSW. Like wheat and barley there is a consistent lack of willing sellers on new crop, so prices have edged higher over the past week. This firmness will likely maintain until new crop is just about to come off and sellers start coming to the table.


Pictured: Good looking crop between Narrandera and Wagga Wagga.

Prices as at 25th July

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.


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