Matthew Noonan, Account Manager Southern NSW
3 minute read
Well, the two weeks since our last report has not added too much positivity on the crop condition front and with no real rain to speak of, the crop could now hit some roadblocks. On face value most crops south of the Mid-Western Highway look solid in a good 80-90% of this area. However, the recurring theme I hear from growers and others travelling around, is with the lack of moisture underneath them and a few mild frosts sapping more out, as soon as it warms up and the crops get hungry, they will put themselves under pressure. So, for now I sit with everyone else crossing everything I have for a good front during September.
Wheat markets from two weeks ago have softened as a result of some selling/buying into September slots from both growers and traders. This continues the very hand to mouth nature of markets we’ve seen over the past few months. Griffith and Young market zones have been seeing business done anywhere from $350-360/MT over the past few weeks for September/October. On the new crop front Port Kembla AWP1 multigrades have firmed on the back of the last few weeks pressure on southern NSW crops, so is now reaching the earlier peaks of $365-373/MT track. Consumers are also starting to look at harvest slots and January 2020 for some coverage.
Barley is still working at around evens to wheat on old crop pricing levels, but the lack of demand continues to be a problem when selling. New crop seems to be working hard to wrestle back some demand and if the spread can continue to be -30 or greater under wheat then Q1 and Q2 2020 should provide some more demand, which will be a positive to try and hold prices up over harvest. For now, most sites are looking at around $250+/MT site ($300-305/MT Port Kembla track) for November/December transfer. At current levels it may be good price risk to position some sales over the next one to two months, but understand with forecast and crop conditions, sentiment probably leans towards holding until the grain hits the bin which is just as wise.
Both old and new crop canola markets have lifted $3-5/MT over the past few weeks. There has been some talk over the past few days of canola getting cut for hay, but I am yet to confirm any actually being done. So, for now, prices hold at well over decile 9 levels for both seasons. NSW growers will be in box seat as it will be some of the earliest to come off compared to VIC/SA, so the question now is, do we see early harvest premiums and then a gradual decline as more hits the bin into Nov/Dec/Jan? This will depend on selling ideas.
Pictured: Frosty, foggy morning near Coolamon on Wednesday.
Prices as at 29th August
* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.