Matthew Noonan, Account Manager Southern NSW
3 minute read
Current conditions have been less than ideal through much of southern NSW. The current state of play is reducing the size of the potential crop day by day with a) lack of rainfall, b) temperatures starting to warm up and c) crops looking good on face value but due to being prepped for 10-15 bags/acre, the lack of subsoil moisture is now starting to reduce yields week on week.
With the above noted and taken into consideration, old and new crop wheat markets have gradually risen over the last week. The most interest has been nearby September/October delivery with Griffith market zone trading around $360-370/MT over the last week allowing those holding old crop (both grower and trade) to execute this grain before new crop hits the bin. But looking at this, the spread from old to new has decreased and is now closer to $20-25/MT rather than the $25-35MT it has been throughout the last two to four weeks. Some consumers are looking at November/December harvest deliveries now, but still very much taking a hand to mouth approach.
The old crop barley market is still very subdued with lack of demand and most homes being covered more on barley compared to wheat. However, new crop numbers have been increasing over the last week with Griffith, Wagga and south east NSW homes pricing around $315-325/MT delivered November/December/January out. The hope from here is the barley crops around southern NSW live up to their reputation of being the hardier (better yielding) crops through dry years versus wheat.
Canola continues to firm with talk that a lot of canola (now flowering) will be cut for hay/silage through southern NSW further reducing the crop size. This has firmed up prices on both old and new crop by $5-10/MT this week with old crop now pricing around $600-610/MT Port Kembla track and new crop around +10/MT to +15/MT carry to these old crop prices. Should fears be confirmed on the reduced acres harvested, production could be sub 300KMT through NSW.
Pictured: Vetch being cut for hay west of Griffith
Prices as at 6th September
* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.