SNSW Market Update 8/03/2019

Matthew Noonan, Agfarm Account Manager

The last few days brought some slight relief to our record hot summer with storms around Southern NSW bringing 5-10mm’s in most cases and, as is the way with this summer, dust too. We are getting closer to sowing, so some are getting rigs ready to roll while over in the east some early grazing canola has already been drilled into the ground. Corn harvest has started up in western Riverina with rice and cotton are not too far away.

The recent declines in wheat prices seem to have halted for now. CBOT continues to come under pressure, but one would argue there is not enough weather premium priced into current old and new season local prices. Currently Griffith MZ is pricing around $390-398/MT for Mar/Apr delivery. This is a week on week increase of $5-10/MT. Consumers will have taken advantage of the recent decline in prices and covered most of Q2-2019 and possibly looking forward into Q3-2019 now. New crop prices also have stopped following CBOT with Port Kembla APW1 MG now pricing back around a $348/MT track and pricing in some weather risk.

Barley remains rather lack lustre with most bids coming in low to mid $300’s exfarm. The spread to wheat over the past two to three months will start to show up in the coming quarter as whether it was able to gain any traction in rations. If it has, this will assist barley demand, and in turn pricing, along with an expected increase in demand from graziers heading into autumn lambing to ensure they maximise lambing percentages.

Canola in the last 24 hours has bounced higher for the first time. It is pricing around $605-610/MT Port Kembla track with most delivered markets up $3-5/MT in past day. Overseas continues to send mixed signals with MATIF rapeseed up on back of 2019/20 production forecast not being much of an increase year on year compared to larger wheat and barley forecasts. ICE canola is suffering downward pressure due to China banning some Canadian exporters from exporting canola to China. One thing is certain though, should we receive limitd rainfall from March through to early April, canola acres will be down again locally.

 
 
 
 
 

Photo: Soybeans west of Wagga Wagga


 

Prices as at 7th March

* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.

 

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