Matthew Noonan, Agfarm Account Manager SNSW
It was always going to happen, we would get an opportunity to start harvest in Central and Southern NSW and it would rain. Throughout much of the Southern Riverina we had 10-30mm’s of rain, mostly over past two days (Tuesday/Wednesday) and 5-20mm’s through the Central West and Western Riverina. Any crops still green (mostly wheat) will see some benefit but I think most will agree we don’t need much more rain for the next 3-5 weeks.
Markets for the most part have held steady again week on week with a few old crop options into Griffith market zone pricing at $430-435/MT delivered Nov/Dec with the January+ carry bid around the $440/MT level (+/-$1-2). Spreads on wheat are taking shape with ASW1 only marginally lower than APW1 at around $5-8/MT. H2 is working a tight $10-12/MT in most cases and APH2 a further $10/MT premium. We should see good competition for lower grades APW1/ASW1/AGP1/SFW1 throughout NSW harvest as buyers look to buy close to domestic homes.
Barley still has some demand into certain areas of NSW/QLD but due to recent history of it being priced on par with SFW1 or even at a premium, it has fallen out of the ration into a number of consumptive homes. Harvest is underway and yields are coming in at anything from 2-6 bags/acre (0.3-1.0mt/ha) out west up to around 10-15 bags/acre (2-2.5mt/ha) with protein high at around 13% or better in a lot of cases. Most site prices for F1 barley are around $390-400/MT in the far west of Port Kembla while to the east they’re at $400-410/MT site. Exfarm Jan + carry levels are ranging from $400-430/MT dependent on location.
Canola is playing a challenging game at present with crushers looking to acquire what they need for the coming 12 months. Even though supply will be historically low its expected prices will still come under pressure as harvest progresses. It’s doubtful we will see the $60-70/MT decline we saw last harvest, but we do expect a drop. Port Kembla prices are ranging from $600-620/MT site and NSW/Melbourne zone is between $600-610/MT site. Delivered markets are into interior crushers are ranging from $620-640/MT as a guideline for Nov/Dec Delivery.
Pictured: Irrigated wheat crop Murrami NSW
Prices as at 8th November
* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.