Nathan Michael, Agfarm Account Manager SNSW
As the first week after the Christmas and New Year period draws to a close, it appears grain markets are only now starting to awaken. There has been only a light volume of buying activity and we are seeing a mixture of unmotivated buyers and unmotivated sellers, which has made for a stagnant market. Things appear to be changing now though, as we are seeing both an increase in buying inquiry and sales numbers. We have largely moved past the cash-motivated selling stage and those who have delivered grain into the system will be more likely inclined to take a longer term view of their marketing.
Wheat markets have had a slightly softer start to the new year. APW is trading at around $283/MT PKE, ASW is trading around $272/MT, H2 at $303/MT PKE and APH2 at $322/MT PKE. These prices have consistently been within a $5/MT range of current levels for quite some time now. Much of the unsold warehoused grain is H2 and above, meaning it may take the return of the full suite of protein buyers to influence the premium wheat prices. Exfarm ASW/SFW1 is pricing at around $230-245/MT going north up to Queensland, with the Griffith market zone trading at around $5/MT under this level. Wheat end-users in Queensland seem to be inclined to sit on their hands for the moment, as they are hoping a decent sorghum crop might help them avoid having to buy expensive wheat from down south.
Growers with barley in the system have seen their prices come off slightly, now sitting around $260-265/MT Port Kembla Track. Most delivered markets in NSW remain relatively unchanged, with consumers in the Riverina region now seeing $250-260/MT delivered January-March. We are also seeing an uptick in buyers looking to accumulate for these destinations, to fill positions as they get called upon.
Canola selling has slowed in line with the dramatic slide in values. This week brought a reasonably steadier market, with values remaining around the $510/MT PKE track level. The back half of the first week of 2018 has seen some sites start to price well above this, ranging from $514-526/MT PKE Track.
Prices as at Friday 5th January 2018