Matthew Noonan, Agfarm Account Manager SNSW
After a hot start to the week, there have been a few storms about in the Southern Central-West and Riverina which have brought temperatures right down over the past few days.
The focus for wheat markets over the past few weeks has been on track sales of APW1 and H2. These markets are up around $8-12/MT since harvest lows. These values have not quite hit ‘highs’ level, but are edging ever closer. APW1 is still pricing around $290-292/MT PKE track level, while H2 has been up around $308-310/MT PKE track, with a few buyers looking to square off their track shorts by the end of January. After this the markets should mimic international movements more as domestic bases will depend on feed markets and/or physical demand by millers for protein grades. ASW1 has been pricing around $270-275/MT PKE track, so has not really been shifting too much week on week. Again, we need feed markets to lift, but as Griffith ($250-254/MT Feb-Mar), Newcastle ($290-292/MT Feb-Mar), and Liverpool Plains ($290-295/MT Feb-Apr) values seemed to have remained steady for the past week, it will be hard to see track ASW1/SFW1 push higher for now.
Barley markets have seemed a little flatter this week, with prompt movement in some homes becoming a little harder to find. This could be due to some good level of business being booked for February-April over the past two or three weeks. Currently we are sitting at around $240-245/MT exfarm in the Western Riverina, while up north around Parkes and Forbes we might be able to extract around $250-255/MT exfarm. Track sales are few and far between, with limited stock still unsold and values currently representing okay levels at $265-270/MT PKE track. It might take a few more weeks or even months for the market to open up again, but one point to make is that we rarely see barley stay above $250-260/MT exfarm for too long, so at this level it probably represents good value.
In canola, it is feeling more and more as though we have hit the lows both internationally and locally, with the market trading sideways for most of the week. It is hard to see any sort of a rally in the short term, with continued pressure from offshore markets and the Australian dollar crucifying Australia’s competitiveness on oilseeds. The best options for now would be to focus on wheat and barley sales. If considering selling canola, the question to ask is; will the cash be better off in your bank account working for you in other ways, if the answer is yes than maybe it’s a sell.
Prices as at Thursday 25th January 2018