Nathan Michael, Agfarm Account Manager SNSW
Harvest has started across most of the region. The northern areas have finished what little canola was there, are close to finishing the barley and have already begun on wheat, while most western and southern areas are well and truly in the middle of their barley and canola harvest. South of Wagga Wagga, things are about a week behind and they have only really started on the canola and maybe some barley. As we would expect, given the patchy rainfall throughout the growing season, yields are incredibly mixed. The maximum yield on canola so far has been approximately 2.5MT/ha and 45% oil, whereas some of the more western and northern canola crops may have yielded as little as 0.2MT/ha with oil as low as 31%. Barley has yielded as high as 4MT/ha around some areas and probably close to 1MT/ha in others. In terms of quality, around 20% of barley received has been malt spec, and 90% of wheat harvested so far is H2 or better.
Premiums for really high protein wheat are edging $300/MT exfarm or better for January delivery. There have also been small premiums for H12 (H2 above 12%) with $260-280/MT possible in many cases. Feed wheat markets have been rather steady, with the short term covered in most cases. ASW1 is pricing at $230-240/MT for Nov/Dec delivery with a $5-8/MT carry for January pick up.
Barley harvest is around 60% complete throughout Southern NSW and it’s expected 60-70% of harvested barley is being held onfarm to be marketed in the new year. Due to barley harvest being down 40-50% from last year, many are hoping to service the northern markets in the new year at a premium. Delivered Darling Downs F1 prices have remained stable at around $315/MT in the face of a northern harvest and the prospect of a decent sorghum crop, so it will be interesting to see whether the large Victorian crop is able to service this demand. F1 delivered silo prices are around $220-225/MT and malt is around $240-250/MT site, which is largely unchanged from a week ago.
Canola has found a level over the past week with limited selling and strong demand for prompt deliveries into crushing plants. Over the coming few months as harvest finishes, it’s expected some sales will take place, however it seems most are content to hold on for now. All eyes will be watching the harvest kick off in Victoria to see if yields are better and if sellers will put some short term pressure on the oilseed market.
Photoed: Harvest at Grong Grong NSW
Prices as at Thursday 16th November 2017