Sam Davidson, Agfarm Account Manager Victoria
Victorian wheat markets continue to be a story of two seasons this week. Buyers are itching to walk old crop cash markets lower but remain keen to pick up new crop cover should the season turn sour.
Trade flow maintained its weight of influence on the 2017/18 season with APW1 bids holding at $320-322/MT and ASW1 bids trading at similar levels. Premiums received for higher protein wheat have come under some pressure, but domestic milling demand appears to be supportive for H2 at +$12/MT to APW1.
As Victorian unsold stocks become tighter and demand from deficit regions remain unchanged, we should see additional price upside in old crop cash markets. We should also consider Northern NSW and Queensland supply deficits look to have been adequately supplied by recent wheat shipments from South Australia and Western Australia at an origin track bid of $300/MT for 2017/18 APW1.
There is plenty of volatility in 2018/19 season grain markets with a seasonal break remaining arguably weak throughout the north west of the state. Falls throughout central and southern regions have placed some pressure on new crop wheat but reluctant grower selling is providing support.
Delivered silo feed barley markets were a little fickle this week with Melbourne sites pricing anywhere from $312/MT to $303/MT track. Geelong terminal and Corio were the best bid sites at $312/MT and Melbourne up country sites were flat at $303-305/MT. Site bids appear to be dependent on buyer positions and cost of execution, however we have seen this situation play out recently and barley prices have managed to build week on week.
Canola markets have proven disappointing this week. Domestic crush buyers appear to have filled their nearby demand and are happy to play out the long game for coverage until the second half of the year. Export demand continues to be orientated towards South Australia and Western Australia which has frustrated growers still holding old crop.
Prices as at 14th June 2018