Giles Ditchfield, Agfarm Account Manager Victoria
The 25th of April is usually the key date for most to be sowing, however with the current seasonal conditions, rotations are being changed each day and more and more land is being dropped out of the program. Some are waiting until it rains before they start, however leaving it too late can result in yield penalties, and how long can you wait before the window closes and planted acres need to be dramatically reduced?
The eight day BOM forecast again shows little precipitation. Parts of Central Victoria and the North East could be in for some rain the first week of May which would be a relief for growers in those areas, however it is not widespread therefore shouldn’t have too much of an impact on crops or current prices.
The trade continue to price dry conditions into the market, and as a result no commodity has fallen over the last week. It has become a seller’s market in recent weeks, with this expected to continue until we get some rain and sowing is over. With the market the way it is, growers have been setting and achieving target prices many thought were unrealistic only a few months ago. Grain is still being highly sought after on both the delivered and exfarm front.
Prices as at 27th April 2018
The strong movements in price have seen some parcels trade over the last week, however there is a still a feeling of upside in the market, and as a result, the trade is continually increasing their bids to match offers and buy tonnes to cover positions, with some sites and commodities being more favourable and easier to cover off than others.
Old crop barley supplies remain tight due to a large percentage selling early. The trade is currently bidding a $295/MT into Geelong Terminal which is up $11/MT on last week. We haven’t seen the new crop barley numbers rise as dramatically as wheat, as the trade expect more barley to be sown this season, assuming the autumn break doesn’t occur before the prime canola sowing window is over.
Feed wheat is trading at $265-267/MT up $5/MT on last week while SFW1 into the Griffith market is trading at a $290/MT for May. Carry is offered on tonnes booked up for May/June delivery, with the deferred payment options also available. The protein market continues to gain momentum with H1 currently at $335/MT and H2 at $310/MT into Melbourne/Geelong. The spread from H2 to APW continues to narrow with APW and ASW1 now trading at evens. APW1 and ASW1 are $300/MT for May/June.
All canola track prices have risen sharply over the last week, again due to dry conditions and the trade starting to panic about the new crop, as more and more canola is being dropped out of sowing programs completely.