Reid Seaby, Regional Manager WA
GIWA released their final 2018/19 crop report on Friday which confirmed WA’s final grain production to be just shy of 18MMT, the second largest on record. The report re-established the Geraldton and Kwinana zones were responsible for the big crop while the eastern Albany and western Esperance zone endured poorer seasons. The comprehensive summary also showed the soft finish gave rise to good grain weight, low screenings and lower protein. On the back of this optimistic summary the Bureau of Meteorology released their updated outlook which is forecasting drier and warmer than normal conditions between now and May. The climate models are showing a 30-40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for February to April over most of WA. Given there has been little to no summer rain, growers will be relying on a wetter April/May period to restore their confidence in the upcoming season.
Markets remains slow given all the available data for 2018 has been priced in, which will limit any substantial price volatility in the near-term. There was no obvious trend over the past week with all the majors experiencing both upward and downward shifts. APW1 in Kwinana fell away $6/MT to $365/MT FIS but new crop APW1 remained unchanged. Malt barley values climbed higher, but feed was down $7/MT to $283/MT FIS in Kwinana. The GM spread closed $15/MT this week as we saw CAN1 bids fall and CAG bids rise.
Prices as at 14th February 2019
* View of current market pricing. Does not represent current Agfarm bids.