SNSW Market Update 17/08/2018

Matt Noonan, Agfarm Account Manager SNSW

Our region received a positive surprise in terms of rainfall over the weekend. Wagga’s rainfall prediction was 1-5mm. By the time the rain stopped falling we’d received over 10mm, and further south faired even better with Henty and Culcairn receiving in excess of 15mm. Unfortunately, further west toward Griffith largely missed out only receiving 3-4mm. Market wise, the rainfall wasn’t widespread enough to materially affect the current production situation. I am reluctant to state we have found a floor in the market, but for the last week, it does seem grain has been trading within a couple of $ of the week previous. The other factor in play is the flow of grain from WA has started landing in Port Kembla. Boats have been unloading in Brisbane for the last few months and this has helped that market find a floor, so it will be interesting to see if the same thing happens in NSW. This will largely depend on the volume and availability of that “imported” grain to the inland markets.

Feed and protein wheat markets remain very strong and there is still significant demand from buyers. With prices being in excess of $400/MT exfarm, grain has been flowing to NSW from Vic, SA and now WA. This increased liquidity is very healthy for the market as it allows both buyers and consumers to gain coverage (expensive, but coverage nonetheless) until harvest. Buyers are balking at buying too far into the future and might be only securing a month’s coverage at a time, but at least they now have options. New crop wheat is still at an eye-watering $450/MT PKE. We haven’t seen any liquidity on new crop as yet and this situation will likely continue until we see a heavy and widespread rainfall across the state.

Old crop feed barley markets remain strong at $400/MT+ exfarm. Demand is sporadic mainly coming from graziers as most larger consumers are using wheat due to limited supply of barley v’s wheat. This will remain strong until a major rain event occurs or until new crop starts to hit the bin bringing liquidity to markets. New crop barley is being priced at around $395/MT PKE track which is around $5-10/MT lighter week on week.

Oilseed markets continue to fluctuate on the back of supplies and overseas factors, currently priced at $605-610/MT PKE track with a $10-15 deduction for old crop. Old crop isn’t experiencing much of a supply issue at the moment as most crushers are relatively well covered until the new crop starts to come off and there is still a bit of it around. New crop on the other hand is a different story, with much of NSW not looking healthy enough to cover domestic needs. Whichever way you look at it, prices look like they will be in the top deciles come harvest.

Prices as at 9th August

 

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