Nathan Michael, Agfarm Account SNSW
Wagga Wagga received 5mm of rain on Wednesday night, which was in line with expectations. The radar showed the majority of the front being north of Wagga, although the Western Riverina seems to have fared slightly better in the range of 12-15mm. Even though this is not exactly what was hoped for, this is the third rain event in the last month and should go a long way towards establishing cereal crops. Buyer nervousness about buying too much before the rain might subside slightly now the rainfalls are largely a known quantity.
Wheat markets are back approximately $5/MT in the last couple of days. This is primarily on the back of grower selling and many buyers getting their short-term positions covered. Griffith zone is trading generically at $330/MT delivered and is starting to buy volume at this level. The Liverpool plains market is at $385/MT and Newcastle is at $380/MT. The end result is growers are looking at around $325-330/MT exfarm, which is still a very strong price but not quite as strong as before the rain. New crop markets are still being bid at $345-350/MT Port Kembla track, giving a site price of over $300/MT for APW. It’s likely this price will come under pressure as grower become more confident in new crop progression.
Ex-Farm barley is starting to be offered into the market at prices from last week and we suspect it may be difficult to see trades at these levels. Some F1 around Western Riverina has been sold at $360/MT, although the market at which volume could be sold is closer to $350/MT exfarm. Even though no new supply will become available until new crop comes online in October/November, the amount of grain for sale is putting pressure on the price and this looks to continue in the short term. Demand is still constant, especially into the sheep feeding areas around Goulburn, Orange and Molong. New crop barley is trading at $250-265/MT exfarm into various feed homes. Even though this represents a massive discount to current crop, it is still very strong compared to most years.
Old crop canola is largely unchanged. With the end of the month approaching, some will probably liquidate stock before the end of the financial year and avoid another month of warehousing. There is limited demand for old crop canola into Griffith at $530-535/MT delivered. New crop canola is not being actively pursued by either growers or buyers.
Prices as at 28th June 2018