VIC Market Update – 25/05/2018

Giles Ditchfield, Agfarm Account Manager Victoria

Markets continued to gain value throughout the week on the back of weather and production issues around large parts of the East Coast. There has been very little rainfall to report, however fingers crossed we could see some falls in the back end of this weekend and into next week. With so many sowing into no moisture at all, there seems to be a wide spread concern around the break and what crops they should be sowing. More and more canola is being dropped out of the 2018/19 program and switched to barley or wheat.

Both protein and feed wheats have been the biggest moving commodities this week with H1 delivered Melbourne/Geelong currently trading at $363/MT which is up $13/MT on last week, SFW1 delivered Griffith is currently at $327/MT for May/June and SFW1 exfarm Mallee and Central Vic/GV is being well bid at $300-$305/MT. The trade is finding it difficult to get much traction at these levels. Stocks are tight and growers are holding, therefore we have seen the trade pay higher and higher to cover off positions.

Barley delivered track markets have increased $6-12/MT in the last week. A few days ago, we saw F1 delivered Melbourne bid at $305/MT. This saw no traction resulting in F1 delivered Melbourne now pricing at $315/MT. Even with prices rising the way they are, it is no easy feat extracting firm offers from grower as it seems to no longer be about the price of grain, but when the rain will fall.

The canola market hasn’t increased as dramatically as wheat and barley. We are currently seeing canola sitting at $528/MT track with most numbers sitting around the $500/MT site. There has been some selling enquiry, however the general mentality is there could be more upside in the market.

New crop markets continue to rally with APW1 multigrade trading at $325/MT Melbourne track, F1 multigrade at $290/MT and canola at $550/MT. With the current seasonal conditions, only those with irrigation have been locking tonnes away and even then, it’s ranging in between 10-15% of predicted production.

 

Prices as at 24th May 2018

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