Sam Davidson, Agfarm Account Manager VIC
The Victorian markets continued last week’s upwards trend, with both old crop and new crop prices rallying strongly again on the back of the dry conditions. Having driven around a large part of the state the last week, it’s obvious that the yield potential is there, however most areas are needing decent rainfall over the next couple of months to ensure a good finish. The early sown crops are looking better than those sown late, however most crops are still 3-4 weeks behind where they should be for this time of the year.
Grain is continuing to be strongly priced moving north of the border, however with the current dry conditions looking like they won’t break anytime soon, growers are happy to monitor the market and hold onto their unsold stock. Old season barley especially continues to remain in tight supply. We have seen demand from both exporters and domestic consumers continue into the new month, however the trade are reporting that they have not been picking up large amounts of tonnes at these price levels, which are being influenced by the domestic consumers in VIC trying to ensure that the tonnes remain in VIC as opposed to heading north into NSW.
This week we have seen ASW1 del Bendigo at $363/mt, up $33 from last week, while SFW1 delivered Griffith is at $378/mt. F1 delivered Central Vic is at $330/mt, however we are seeing stronger interest for ex farm barley. Canola delivered Footscray is $567/mt with oils and bonifications. Despite these strong movements in price, there has still been very little selling.
New crop barley and wheat prices have rallied $32 and $42 respectively over the last week as the trade try and get some cover heading into the new season. With these price spikes, growers are now asking how much more upside the market has. New crop Canola has not been seeing such large price rallies at the moment, however this can be attributed to the Canola market being more export oriented, rather than the largely domestic-oriented wheat and barley markets.
At this point in time, the general sentiment among growers is that most would be happy to see the prices fall away $10-$15 if they could pick up an inch or two of rain. There is rain on the radar for the next week, however we have seen rain drop off the radar far too often of late. Growers are being buoyed by the 5-10 mm falls that they keep picking up as it’s enough to keep the plants alive, however everyone is hoping for a few decent fronts to come through to set it up for a decent crop – hopefully we see the first of these fronts some through in the next few weeks.
Prices as at 2nd August